MIA at NYJ

Rest advantage of at least three days identifies the better-rested side.

away side 51% on 443 graded games

Division rivals know each other well, keeping divisional games close; a moneyline underdog the market still prices as competitive (not a near-pickem, not a longshot) covers that implied probability at an elevated rate.

away side 41% on 343 graded games

Division rivals face each other twice a year and know each other well, keeping divisional lines artificially tight — the underdog covers at an elevated rate regardless of which side it is.

away side 55% on 731 graded games

A meaningful rest-days edge before kickoff correlates with a better-prepared, fresher team; back whichever side has the edge.

away side 51% on 443 graded games

Familiar divisional opponents reduce a favorite’s informational advantage.

away side 55% on 731 graded games

A closing spread a half point off a key number hands the underdog side extra backdoor- cover value that a spread sitting exactly on the key number does not.

away side 53% on 823 graded games

A team on an extended ATS streak (either direction) is due for mean reversion; the streak itself carries no forward-looking edge once it reaches a genuine length.

home side 51% on 894 graded games