Updated Sep 7, 2026 · Week 1 board.
What our numbers can and cannot say about the bonus
Premium formats pay extra for a catch, which lifts a real target earner over a touchdown-only name. Our Week 1 model has no flag for scoring format at all. A McBride number or a Kittle number isn't marked standard or premium. So I can't hand you a specific point swing for switching your league to premium scoring. That flag doesn't exist in what we track.
What I can hand you is a rerank. Two boards disagree hard at this position, our Week 1 model and FantasyPros' preseason list, and the split runs deepest at the bottom of the price sheet, right where a premium-format manager shops for a second tight end. A premium league raises the ceiling on a target earner more than on a touchdown-only name, so the gaps below matter more in that format than in a standard league, even with no number attached to the bonus itself.
The $1-to-$2 tier, reranked
Eleven tight ends carry a $1 or $2 auction price. Nine have a Week 1 number from us; Terrance Ferguson and T.J. Hockenson don't. Next to each name: our Week 1 rank at the position and FantasyPros' preseason rank.
| Player | Auction $ | Week 1 points | Our TE rank | FantasyPros TE rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Likely | $2 | 1.92 | 48 | 13 |
| Dalton Kincaid | $2 | 9.66 | 10 | 11 |
| Juwan Johnson | $2 | 12.68 | 5 | 15 |
| Hunter Henry | $2 | 11.24 | 7 | 20 |
| AJ Barner | $1 | 9.48 | 11 | No FantasyPros rank |
| Brenton Strange | $1 | 9.22 | 14 | 18 |
| Terrance Ferguson | $1 | No number yet | n/a | No FantasyPros rank |
| Greg Dulcich | $1 | 4.93 | 29 | 31 |
| T.J. Hockenson | $1 | No number yet | n/a | 21 |
| Dalton Schultz | $1 | 10.66 | 8 | 17 |
| Chig Okonkwo | $1 | 10.12 | 9 | No FantasyPros rank |
The widest split in this tier runs against the grain. Isaiah Likely is FantasyPros' 13th tight end; our model has him 48th, a 35-spot gap the wrong way for a name most boards still respect. Hunter Henry is the widest gap in the other direction, our 7th against FantasyPros' 20th, a 13-spot move in the model's favor on a $2 price. Dalton Schultz shows the same pattern smaller, our 8th versus FantasyPros' 17th, a 9-spot gap. Henry and Schultz both carry the tightest miss range on the entire tight end board, 0.45 points either way, and that's the number I'd pay for before any rank. Juwan Johnson adds a third case in the model's favor, our 5th against FantasyPros' 15th, a 10-spot move, on a 12.68-point projection. Compare against the full Week 1 rankings before setting a waiver claim.
Where the top of the position still disagrees
It isn't only a cheap-tier story. George Kittle projects 20.5 points, our top tight end this week, while FantasyPros' preseason consensus has him 9th at the position. Trey McBride sits opposite: FantasyPros' TE1 projects 17.58 in our model, 3rd, not 1st. The full Week 1 tight end board covers that top-of-position split in more depth. Further down the bench is where premium scoring actually decides your flex spot, and it's the part most draft boards skip.
Treat a wide gap as a question, not an answer. Check routes and target share yourself, with target share versus air yards as the starting frame, before you bet a roster spot on a rank alone. A rank tells you where a model landed. It doesn't tell you why, and the why is what holds up once real snaps replace a preseason guess.
The Receipts Drawer
The number: 0.45 points, the miss range on both Hunter Henry ($2) and Dalton Schultz ($1), the tightest on the whole position, sitting behind two names most draft boards barely rank. Chig Okonkwo is the opposite case, a similar $1 price with a 5.60-point range, wide enough that his 10.12-point projection could land almost anywhere. Same dollar, very different bet. The version that goes wrong: real target counts after Week 1 don't back the tight number, and it was a thin week of inputs talking. What to do: at $1 or $2 I'd take Henry or Schultz over Okonkwo every time, and I'd say so out loud at the table.
Watch the waiver wire once real target counts post after Week 1. A tight, cheap number that holds under real usage is worth more than a wide one that only looked good on a preseason chart.
