Updated Sep 7, 2026 · Week 1 board.
A price needs its other half
DraftKings prices Saints at Lions, which kicks off Sunday, Sep 13 at 1:00 PM ET, at -305 for the Lions and +245 for the Saints. The same board has Bears at Panthers in the same window, +124 for the Panthers and -148 for the Bears. Convert the Lions' -305 on its own and you have answered a smaller question than the one you asked. It gives you what -305 says about the Lions.
It does not give you the Lions' fair chance once the Saints' price is counted.
Converting both sides
The Lions' -305 converts to 305 divided by 305 plus 100, which is 75.31%. The Saints' +245 converts to 100 divided by 245 plus 100, which is 28.99%. Add them. The pair sums to 104.30%, not 100%.
Those extra 4.30 points are DraftKings' cut on this game, and they are why 75.31% is not a fair chance no matter how firmly it is quoted.
The Panthers' +124 converts to 100 divided by 124 plus 100, or 44.64%. The Bears' -148 converts to 148 divided by 148 plus 100, or 59.68%. That pair sums to 104.32%. The Saints-Lions pair summed to 104.30%.
Same book, same minute, two separately quoted cuts.
Neither sum is an error. A two-sided market is built so the two prices add up past 100% by roughly the book's cut on that game. A live pair landing on exactly 100% would be the strange result. Check that the sum comes in above 100% rather than assuming it does, because that check is the one worth running before you trust either raw number.
Removing the margin
Divide each side's raw chance by its own game's sum. The pair that comes back does add to 100%. Lions: 75.31 divided by 104.30 is 72.21%. Saints: 28.99 divided by 104.30 is 27.79%.
Panthers: 44.64 divided by 104.32 is 42.79%. Bears: 59.68 divided by 104.32 is 57.21%. Those four adjusted numbers are the fair chances the two markets imply. The four raw prices are not.
No number here gets trusted until the other side of its own game has gone through the same division.
The correction is not the same size in both games. The Lions go from a raw 75.31% to a fair 72.21%, a drop of 3.10 points. The Bears go from 59.68% to 57.21%, a drop of 2.47 points. The bigger favorite gives back more raw points to the same proportional cut, which is why -305 loses more than -148 does.
| Game | Side | DraftKings price | Raw probability | No-vig probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orleans at Detroit | Lions | -305 | 75.31% | 72.21% |
| New Orleans at Detroit | Saints | +245 | 28.99% | 27.79% |
| Chicago at Carolina | Panthers | +124 | 44.64% | 42.79% |
| Chicago at Carolina | Bears | -148 | 59.68% | 57.21% |
What checking both sides does not fix
This strips the cut out of one book's quoted moment and does nothing else. Whether DraftKings priced either game right in the first place is a different question, and the division does not answer it. It also leaves a spread or a total alone. Those are their own two-sided markets, quoted at their own prices.
No college price, no MLB price, no prop and no PrizePicks line went into any of this. The four raw prices and the four fair figures above come off the two DraftKings NFL moneylines quoted here.
We checked both sides of two DraftKings moneylines off the Sep 7 board and divided each pair down to a fair number. What that is worth is one book at one moment. No lean on either game comes out of it. The odds converter runs the same both-sides step on any two prices entered together.
A companion piece on vig and hold covers how the size of the cut moves from book to book. The picks board and the CLV tool follow what happens to a price after this one. The prices printed here stop moving. The ones on those pages do not.
Sources
DraftKings' board, pulled Sep 7, 2026, put both games above 100% before the division and both into a fair pair after it. Watch for a re-price on either game before Sunday's kickoff. If one lands, run the divide-by-the-sum step again, because a moved price changes both halves of it.
