Inside The Data: What Will Be Vic Fangio's Counter Vs. A Top-5 EPA Pass Offense?

Hello, everyone. Welcome to Inside the Tape on Inside the Birds. I'm Geoff Mosher, of course, with our data and analytics expert, Sam Finkel. And this podcast is called Inside the Data. This is our game preview episode. But I know there's another podcast, NFL podcast, I believe done by Ryan Clark, former, what, Steeler and played for Washington, too. I think it's called The Pivot, which would be a pretty appropriate name for this podcast, for this episode, because we had a lot of great data points and analysis that we always do to preview these games. But then, Sam, everything changed. All the work you put in had to be redone because the news broke on Thursday late afternoon that Jalen Hurts would be out for the game with a blood clot that was discovered to be in his left calf before the Jaguars game. And then moved at some point from discovery. And we'll see how long. We have no idea how long he's going to be out for, but we know it's at least one week. And that obviously changed everything for you. It certainly did. I mean, we recorded this episode already. And, you know, the results are going to be very different. And some of the stats that I'm going to pull in are have to change because the game changed. Of course. The first thing that I thought of with this show was the impact. Because we always start off with the predictive model, the Monte Carlo model. And the first thing I thought of was, wow, we had already in an episode that no one's going to see now, discussed how much that had changed from the preseason to week one already. And what change would that look like when the hurts, injury and being out factored in. So I imagine that's the first thing you also ran to. That is the first thing I ran to. And I spent a lot of time adjusting that model. Used a very similar strategy that I used with the Bears game. Because obviously that was their third string quarterback, Case Keenum and the opponent, but it reversed it. Although the adjustment was a little bit heavier because it's Jalen Hurts. And that is a large part of the Eagles offense, obviously. And their identity is Jalen Hurts. He's the engine, which is very different from the difference between Bajan and Case Keenum. Absolutely. Absolutely. So we'll get to the chart in a second, but it's crazy to think that after Sunday, the only NFC East quarterback to start every game for his team would be Dak Prescott. Four teams. And we're only six weeks in to the season. And that's what we got already. Very crazy to think for sure. All right. So let's talk about the Monte Carlo simulation model and what it says compared to what it was going to say. Yeah. So the original model projected the Eagles to win 68.8%, which was 688 of the 2000 simulations prior to Jalen Hurts injury. I believe that number was 61%. It was like 61.1%. So they won 611 of the simulations. Following the Jalen Hurts injury, it is now 451, 45.1%, which is a 23.7% fall from where they had been on the season. I will say eventually what I'd like to do is come back and show you how the win percentage changed because I remember the original purpose of the model was to see how many games the Eagles will win. I think the model had them between 10 and 11. It is now between eight and nine. Interesting. Based on the way the season is going. I think it's at like 9.09 right now, but it's pretty close between eight and nine. I think the way things are going and the way bad news just keeps hovering around the Eagles like a dark cloud, nine wins is something some people would sign up for because that might be enough to win the NFC East. I mean, it's really early, but then you have to ask the question, well, is just winning the NFC East with the objective, the goal that make you happy? I mean, there's so many questions that would be in the aftermath of all that, but right now we're just on week six. Well, yeah, I do think it's early, but also after that Eagles fans got the taste of Super Bowls, it's become Super Bowler bust mentality. So it's, it'll be interesting to see what happens, but that is definitely something to keep in mind. All right, so the at-a-glance numbers are really just based on what has happened, not will, what will happen. So it doesn't take into account the Jalen Hurts injuries. But how is it, how do, still, nonetheless, it tells you a good story about what the Panthers been and what the Eagles have been. Well, I actually added a statistic that I wanna bring up from, that was not in last episode, but it will be, well, the one that no one will see. But it will be in this one. So according to CBS Sports' John Breach, he had this statistic and I think it's really interesting. I'd love to share it. Okay. So the Eagles coming off, we talked about this, the Eagles are coming off their international game and they're facing a team with a bye. That has happened four times in NFL history. Right. Okay. And it's a very small sample size, but the team coming off the international game is 0-4. Wow. That is interesting. I would love to know the travel. All right. So there's a difference between going to Brazil, which was a really long flight, right? I mean, depending on where you're going from, or Australia for those teams and England, which is a long flight. But what is that? Six to seven hours, I believe I was told, which is sort of like a West Coast to East Coast flight. Sure. But yeah, it's I have the games. If you wanted to hear. Oh, yeah. It was the Jets bills. And that one was in Toronto. So it's not that crazy. Yeah, especially for the bills. And it was Chargers Texans. And the Texans played in Mexico. Right. But again, it's not that big of a trip when you're in Texas. Right. Of course. Then it was Falcons over Dolphins. And the Dolphins were in London. Okay. Play Jacksonville. And then the final one is Steelers and Browns. And the Browns were in London as well. Okay. Interesting. So the Steelers that so the Browns had played in London the week before. And the Steelers had a coming off the buy. And the Steelers won. I would just simply say I would imagine that the Steelers were favored to win that game anyway, because the Browns usually stink. But yeah, I mean, I think it factors in. So I'm not trying to dismiss it at all. I would have thought if I just think that it's more like coming back from a West Coast trip and then you're facing a team coming off the buy. Yeah. Absolutely. I figured it was an interesting angle. We talked about it in the episode that no one will see. But I said it, who knows who will favor because schemes coming off a buy, their performance is sometimes impacted negatively. It just depends. We'll see. Just thought I'd throw that one out there before. I think there's a good argument to be made that the NFL should not have this at all. If it's avoidable, they should avoid it because it does seem, even before you gave the data, it just doesn't seem fair that you're coming back from an international game and the team you're playing had a buy. Agreed. It's a weird scheduling quirk that has only happened. This is the fifth time it's ever happened. But as the NFL has more of an international stretch and prioritizes it, it should not happen very often. It should. Yeah. Yeah. I was going to say it's fifth sounds like it's only the fifth time. The sample size is right. I mean, when did they start playing in London? Was it even was it 10 years ago? Was it more than 10 years? I don't remember. They haven't been playing international, especially like the Brazil game in the Australia. This is all more recent. I would say it was within the last 10 years. The first data point is from 2011. Okay. Oh, wow. It does go back. That was the Toronto game. Oh, the Toronto game. Right. Now, I'd have to check. I don't think that was a planned international game. Was it or was that because of stadium relocation issue? From 2008 to 2013, the Bills played an annual game in Toronto. That's right. But again, that is literally like Toronto to Buffalo is across the river. That's not I almost want to say we shouldn't count that, but because it's not it's probably shorter distance than Philly to Pittsburgh, I would imagine. Sure. But I will say the Bills were five and two at the time that they played and they were favored by two and a half and ended up losing by 16 points to the Jets to the Jets. Yeah, listen, you can't be blaming playing Toronto on that. I don't know what went on there. 100%. But I just think it's interesting. It's an angle we hadn't looked at last time and I figure maybe it would be interesting this time. For sure, for sure. Okay, so the other stats at a glance. Yeah, I mean, you look at it and it does not bode particularly well for the Eagles, even with, you know, Jalen Hurts and the way that the team has been. Because you know, look at the Panthers, they're fourth in points per game at 30.2. The Eagles are 18.4 and they're 29th in the league. So really not great in terms of scoring for the Eagles offense and pretty great for the Panthers offense, which the advanced stats will support, as we'll talk about later. Look at the point differential. I mean, plus 12 for the Panthers, that's 12th in the league, minus 20 for the Eagles, that's 26th in the league. And then something we talked about pretty at length last time we tried to do this was the average margin of victory, 18.5 for the Panthers, which is third in the NFL. But the Eagles only have an average margin of victory. And that's again, when they win the games of three. So that's 28th in the league. So you look at the Panthers and it's a three score game at least. And then you look at the Eagles and it is a one. So when the Panthers win, they're winning in blowouts really is kind of what that statistic kind of indicates. Right. This is sort of like when you watch a boxing match and they give the tail of the tape. And then one fighter just has like way, the measurables are just way better than the other. And you're like, how's this other guy even going to compete? Even though we know it's different in football. Just how lopsided these these specific statistics are. Yeah, especially with the turnover differential. I mean, plus three for the Panthers, which is sixth in the NFL and the Eagles are minus two, despite not turning the ball over much. That's crazy. And they're 20th in the league, so. Hey, football is heating up and everyone's pulling up because PrizePix has all your picks in one place. New users, get yourself a head start with PrizePix. Best offer yet. If you win your first $5 lineup, you'll get $150 in lineups. That's right. 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That's right, $150 instantly in lineups if you win your first $5 lineup by downloading the app today and using the Code Birds. PrizePix, run your game. Fall is the season where everyone gets busier. More calls, more customers, more chances for something to slip through the cracks. And staying ahead means having the right system, not just working harder. That's why today's episode is brought to you by Quo, spelled Q-U-O, the business phone system built so you never miss a call. Quo is the number one rated business phone system on G2. Trusted by over 90,000 businesses who rely on it to stay reachable and look professional every day. Money is on the line. Always say hello with Quo. Try Quo for free plus get 20% off your first six months when you go to quo.com/birds. That's quo.com/birds. All right. How about from an efficiency, we talk about EPA. Yeah. I mean, the Eagles offense is 27th and 25th respectively for passing and rushing on offense. And the Panthers defense are 20th and 24th respectively for passing and rushing on EPA. So they kind of match up pretty well. They're assuming, you know, it's harder to say how McKee will handle that. But I mean, it's pretty evenly matched between the Eagles offense and the Panthers defense in terms of EPA and efficiency. Pressure rate, the Eagles are the worst in the league. They've allowed the most pressure, at least from this, according to NFL, next gen stats and the Panthers are 23rd in generating. So it's not, it is an advantage to the Panthers in that regard, but not much. And then if you look at it from the other perspective, from the Panthers offense, I mean, that's where you kind of see a significant mismatch. And I want to say a big reason why the Eagles defense is penalized so much from an EPA perspective is because they're not getting sacks and they're not getting turnovers. Those generally will flip the EPA efficiency and just EPA in general from a defensive and offensive perspective, that those influence EPA significantly. So I want to caveat that, you know, the Eagles 24th in passing efficiency, which again would be the one that would be most likely implicated by turnovers and sacks, that that will be the most impacted statistics. So 24th on overall passing efficiency between the Eagles defense against the Panthers unit, which is fit. Sounds really bad. But if the Eagles were able to, you know, actually finish plays and get turnovers, those statistics would be a little bit different. That is absolutely true. There's a great expression that people tell me all the time. If it's, if a nuts were candy and what is it? If and buts were candy and nuts something, something, something. I've heard it before, but I could not quote it for you. Well, I think just in general, before we move on from it, A, we'll see if, because you and I are in agreement that when you see the Eagles and their pass efficiency at 24th in the league, from an EPA standpoint, we always want to see does the DVOA agree? Because it doesn't feel like the Eagles are given up a lot of passing yards against teams. So we'll check that, right? You have that. And then also, if you would have told anybody going into the year that the Eagles offense would have the 32nd ranked pressure rate, meaning they'll allow the most pressure in the NFL, I think people would have told you to shut up and discredit you and said, you don't know what you're talking about, or either that or I just spent too much time on social media. But that is a really glaring stat. You wouldn't hear that for social media. You could walk around the city without anybody saying that to you. There you go. Let's first look at the advanced stats preview that we were just referencing. What does it say in terms of EPA compared to DVOA for both teams? If we look at the Eagles offense, again, their EPA per play is minus 0.21, which is 30th in the league. Really, really bad. But it just means they're having so many explosive plays when you compare it to the DVOA, which is not much better. It's minus 13.9 percent, but that's 26. So, I mean, they're doing worse than average, but not quite at the level that the EPA per play would suggest. Bottom third. That's the reality of it. It is the reality of it, for sure. And again, with DVOA, you can look at those stats and say that it's 13.9 percent under the league average, but you can't do that for the passing and rushing DVOA. The ranks are a little bit more relevant. And you look at the passing rank for the Eagles, they're 25th in the league. You look at rushing, they're also 25th in the league from an offensive standpoint. Very much so. Okay. Defense. Well, I mean, even just comparing the Eagles offense to the Panthers defense really quick, they kind of blow them out of the water. I mean, their DVOA is 2.2 percent, which is 13th in the league. They're 15th in passing DVOA and 11th in rushing DVOA. And the Eagles have really struggled to run the ball without Saquon Barkley and with all the combinations of offensive line that they've been having. And just in general, even when the season started, they were having some issues running the ball outside like one crazy run by Saquon Barkley in the first game. But in general, I mean, the DVOA and the EPA kind of agree more so in the fact that, you know, the Panthers are an average unit. I'd say they're not generating turnovers or explosive plays on defense consistently for the EPA to be affected. But from a passing and rushing DVOA perspective, they're right about, you know, at the league average or actually it's more appropriate to say median, more the league median. So, right. Well, and this doesn't really factor. Well, it does factor in a little bit, but it was pretty recently, I think last weekend was the first Panthers game they had to play without both of their starting corners, which they will continue to not have even going into this game. Correct. So, I mean, again, EPA, they're probably not going to be, well, who knows? I mean, with McKee, it'll be an interesting show. Yeah. It's like you want to take advantage of, you want to hit them where it hurts them, but you're hurting in the areas that you're using there to try to hurt the opponent. So, you know, what are you going to do? Couldn't have said it better myself. And I mean, from a defensive perspective, this is something you were hinting at, right? Their EPA per play on defense is 0.01, which is 24th in the league, but the DVOA is 0.3%, which is 14th in the league. So, I mean, they're right at that league average, basically, and median, because again, DVOA is normalized, so it's going to be right there. And then, yeah, I mean, the DVOA for the Eagles defense, again, rushing their 13th and passing their 21st. It's similar on the EPA metrics. They don't disagree that much. But compared to the Panthers offense, I mean, the Panthers offense is 8th in EPA per play at 0.07 and 9th in DVOA at 10.7%. So, I mean, that's pretty consistent. I mean, they are a top 10 unit on offense that the Eagles are going to be facing. And then EPA per pass, they're tied for 5th. EPA per rush, they're tied for 19th. And similarly in DVOA, they're 10th in passing and 18th in rushing. So, the passing is really the strength of the Panthers offense. Bryce Young has really put a lot together this season. But they're probably closer to top 10 than top 5 as a unit, but they are a top 10 unit. Okay. So getting back to what we were talking about earlier, from an EPA standpoint to a DVOA standpoint for the Eagles' pass, right, it was a pass defense, right? 24th and 21st. I guess, so they are in more agreement than I thought they would be about where the Eagles are as a pass defense. Yeah. And again, I think the discrepancy of the three spots is because of lack of sacks. And in general, sacks will affect DVOA too, if you think about it. That is the biggest thing that's missing from this Eagles defense. We talked about it in the last episode that actually did air, where they just are not converting their pressure into sacks. And that is what Fangio's defense relies on. Having a really good front presence and front seven, it really takes care of the back end. And without it, you see some glaring weaknesses that other teams are taking advantage of. So, there is a disagreement somewhat, though, that is, I would say, notable in that overall EPA per play. I'm sorry, or per play. EPA says 24th, Eagles are ranked 24th, and DVOA says 14th. That's a pretty significant jump. That is. And I think a lot of that is the pressure not turning into sacks, and not generating the turnovers that you would expect from this defense. Yes, because that's what EPA is more turnover-sensitive, right? Right. And sack-sensitive. All right. So this one is part of the pivot, the Eagles performance without Jalen Hurts chart throughout the years. So this is just games that Jalen Hurts didn't start since when like starting in 2021. And, you know, they're interesting. I mean, definitely some memorable ones, definitely some less than memorable ones. But the Eagles record is three and four in that period. Their average points for is 25.9 and their average points against is 24.7. So if you can kind of stick with that, despite having a losing record, they have more points for than points against. That you can see is in the specifically in that 2024 week 17 against the Cowboys where they won 41 to 7. And that's the problem with a small sample size. You can really see it is, you know, an anomalous performance, a blowout against the Cowboys heavily weighs this data and the averages. Yeah, for sure. I remember the 2021, 2022 losses to the Cowboys. I mentioned those were bad defensive efforts because they were turnover played, if I recall correctly. So yeah, but interestingly in two of the three wins there, I don't want to call them both blowouts, but one's a 35 point or four point win and one's a 15 point win. Man, you make me do math sometimes. I don't like that. Listen, I just want you to have fun too. What's that? Oh yeah, I just want you to have fun too. But two of those three wins have come by more than one possession. So that is interesting. All right, cool. A Tanner McKee chart. Who would have thought we'd be doing this in week six? Not me. I mean, I kind of hoped we wouldn't have to, but here we are. Right. So again, small sample size. We have approximately 50 drop backs in both. You have 47 in 2024 and 49 in 2025, but that's pretty similar. I mean, it was within two games. Both of them were one starts. And if you remember to the last chart we just had, one of them was the 20 to 13 victory against the Giants in 20 and 24 week 18. And the other one was a loss to the commanders last season 17 to 24. But you look at those numbers and you see in 2024 through the two games that McKee was featured in and the one that he started, he had a positive EPA per drop back of plus 0.25, which is excellent. I mean, he added almost 12 points, which is really good. And then in 2025, he had a negative EPA at minus 2.7, which is minus 0.06, which is somewhat negligible. I mean, it's negative, but it's, it's somewhat negligible in that. And then you look at the CPOE, which was a signature of Jalen Hurtstatt last season and the season before. And his catch percentage over expectation, again, that's just if you put a regular receiver there, would it be caught, is lower. And some of that has to do with placement of the quarterback, but it also has to do with, you know, the ability of the receiver to finish. So it's a little bit of a blended statistic in that regard. Yeah. It always just feels like in general, with both quarterbacks, when the Eagles quarterback, when the Eagles offense is humming, right? And it's not always quarterback dependent, but when you have a running game and things like that, the CPOEs are higher. And when not, they get, it kind of gets sucked in, you know, like McKee two years ago, everybody generally thinks of that as a good offensive performance, he played well, they won the game, had a positive EPA per drop back, but still a negative CPOE. I find that interesting. Yeah. And again, the sample size is really small. So this is just like, it's hard to extrapolate anything meaningful from this data set, but here we are. All right. So to sum it all up, the four keys for this game. Yeah, that had to change quite a bit. The model now leans Carolina 45.1% equals win probability. So right away, your number one says the Eagles sort of have to play outside the margins. They have to do something to overcome the fact that they A, they have injuries and now they are considered the underdog. Yeah. And the way that happens is kind of the last three points, right? I mean, they have to generate offense without hurts. I mean, they're 30th in the league from EPA perspective. And so they're going to have to find creative ways to generate offense and to optimize the situation that they're in with McKee and make him put concepts called that he can succeed in. Because even in preseason, he wasn't like McKee that we were used to in preseason, I feel like. But either way, I definitely think that that's one of the ways they win. The other way that they win is disrupting Carolina's pass game. And that happens through sacks and it happens through turnovers, particularly interceptions. They are a top 10 unit in the passing game, top 5 in EPA, top 10 in DVOA. And the Eagles pass defense is 24th. So they're going to have to do something to change it. They're going to have to be creative. And I know there's injuries on the defensive side too. And we talked a little bit about them, I think in the last episode. The episode that no one will see as we keep referring to it. But I think we also talked about the recap one. I was talking about the recap. But either way, that is a big part of it. So they're going to have to get creative on defense too. And I think one of the things that you mentioned, and I don't remember if it was in the forgotten episode or if it was in the recap, but we were talking about Fangio Blitzing more, right? I mean, we're going to probably, we're going to have to compare that next week because I think he's going to have to blitz more. This is a unit that you're going to need to, you're going to have to do something because you're not, the offense isn't going to win you the game. It's really going to have to be on the defense. It's going to, we're going to have to see some creativity from Mannion. I'm really interested to see what happens there. But then the other thing, which is pretty consistent with the Eagles win formulas is winning the turnover battle, right? I mean, you look at the turnover differential, it's a big reason Carolina has been successful. The Eagles need to protect the football and create extra possessions because who knows how efficient this offense is going to be? They're going to have to, the defense is really going to have to carry their weight. Unfortunately, fair or not, the defense has to dictate whether they win this game or not. Yeah, I feel very comfortable in saying, and then of course, I'll be wrong and they'll come back on me, but I still feel comfortable in saying that for the Eagles to win this game, they will have to create multiple turnovers or take aways and win the turnover ratio and not turn the ball. I don't see a pathway to victory without that happening. Be sure to check out our friends at phlsportsnation.com. They're enhancing the fans' experience of their coverage of all Philadelphia sports teams. For the fan, by the fan is their motto. So make sure you check them out at phlsportsnation.com and on Twitter, at PHLSportsNation. Everything in life comes down to choice, doesn't it? Whether it's choosing the team you root for, who you listen to, or how you power your home, you deserve the freedom to choose your own adventure. And that goes for your power bill too. Right now across the US., Americans have the potential to harness limitless, clean, affordable energy. We could be powering our hospitals, our schools, our farms and so much more. In some places, this abundant local power is already helping lower utility bills and creating jobs. But depending on where you live, you may not have the option to choose limitless energy for your household. That has to change. We should all get to choose the energy we pay for. Cheaper, cleaner, limitless energy is out there. Let's find more ways to use it. Head over to energylimitless.com to learn more about your energy options. All right, my friend, I'm not going to pull you into a prediction. I know you don't like doing predictions, so I won't. It doesn't even seem fair. It doesn't seem fair. I will say in the Forgotten episode, the episode that will never air, I did pick the Eagles. I felt comfortable doing that. A little uncomfortable, but you never feel comfortable picking. I will say that considering all the hurdles that the Eagles will have to face to win this game, I lean Panthers. I definitely feel like the data itself would justify picking the Panthers, but I think considering the limitations that the Eagles offense is going to have with McKee at the helm, and maybe I'm wrong. I'm hoping I am, but I think the Panthers comfortably win this game. Comfortably. That would be a little bit disappointing because we have big expectations of this defense to at least keep them in. But again, you can only, as the defense has shown, you can only ask them to do so much. And they're performing at league average at best. So it's hard. Okay. Good stuff, Sam. Thank you for the adjustment. Thank you for the pivot. The extra data and stats were very vital, and we appreciate that from you. That is going to do it for this episode of Inside the Data, our week six game preview. For Sam Finkel, I'm Geoff Mosher. Thank you for watching Inside the Data on Inside the Birds.