NFL playoff picture: Updated projections, chances to make the postseason

Are the 3-0 Raiders for real? (1:23)ESPN staffOct 2, 2026, 06:00 AM ETMultiple AuthorsThe 2026 NFL season is underway, and while it's still very early, we're already starting to track the playoff picture and the road to Super Bowl LXI. Which teams have the best chances to make the 14-team postseason field? Which have a lot of work to do to ultimately get in?We used ESPN's Football Power Index to project the rest of the season, looking at the playoff picture for both conferences. We included updated odds for every team to make the postseason, clinch its division and even make the Super Bowl in February. Plus, we also have the FPI's projections for every game on the upcoming slate and how a win -- or a loss -- might impact each team's playoff chances, independent of other results.Here's everything you need to know about the playoff picture right now, including which teams are trending up and down in each conference.Jump to: AFC picture | NFC picture Game stakesTrending up after Week 3: Las Vegas RaidersThe Raiders eked out a win over the Saints to go to 3-0. They still have the third-best playoff odds in the AFC West, and they'll face the 3-0 Chiefs in Week 4. It's not going to be an easy road back to the playoffs for the first time since 2021, but they did get a strong 2026 debut from tight end Brock Bowers, who had 10 receptions for 110 receiving yards and a touchdown in New Orleans.Trending down after Week 3: Houston TexansThe Texans are 0-3 for the second straight year, but there is one stat running in their favor. Since 2000, only two teams have started 0-3 and made the playoffs: the 2018 Texans and 2025 Texans. That is at least partially related to the lack of competitiveness in the AFC South, though the Jaguars are hot in 2026 as the fourth-best team in FPI. And Houston didn't help its chances by losing to the Colts, a division rival, in Week 3. The Texans had a 42.6% chance of making the playoffs after Week 2; that is now under 25%.Trending up after Week 3: Minnesota VikingsAccording to ESPN Analytics, the Vikings had the lowest percentage chance (10%) of winning the NFC North entering the season. They've tripled their chances after an undefeated start, and teams that start the season 3-0 win the division 51% of the time since 1990. However, coach Kevin O'Connell's offense does not appear to be in good shape so far. Minnesota became the first team to start 3-0 despite fewer than 250 total yards of offense per game since the 1957 Browns, per ESPN Research.Trending down after Week 3: Tampa Bay BuccaneersThe Bucs lost an ugly game in Week 3 against the Vikings, which resulted in an 0-3 record and the loss of QB Baker Mayfield for at least three weeks (dislocated thumb). Tampa Bay is now the only winless team in the NFC South, as the Falcons stunned the Packers in QB Michael Penix Jr.'s return from a torn ACL. The Bucs' chances to make the playoffs fell from 17.1% after Week 2 to less than 10% now.NFL playoff scheduleJan. 16-18, 2027: Wild-card round Jan. 23-24: Divisional round Jan. 31: AFC and NFC championship games Feb. 14: Super Bowl LXI (in Los Angeles)