Totals betting (also called over/under) is a wager on the combined final score of both teams. If the total is set at 47.5 for an NFL game, you're betting on whether the two teams combine for 48+ points (over) or 47 or fewer (under).
Totals are priced independently of spreads and can move in different directions. A key injury to an offensive player might move the total down without affecting the spread. A forecasted weather event — heavy rain, high winds — is one of the strongest total movers in the NFL.
Model approach: Accurate total models require predicting both teams' scoring separately, then combining them. Look at pace of play, offensive efficiency, and defensive efficiency rather than just recent scoring averages.
Totals correlation: Home total and visitor total are correlated — a faster-paced home team artificially inflates opponent scoring opportunities too. Account for this in multi-leg correlation.
The Shark Snip consensus model aggregates multiple game-total predictions and displays the estimated over probability alongside each game's market line on the team odds page.