Methodology

Estimate per-leg hit rate at the teased spread, not the original spread.
Multiply per-leg probabilities to get combined parlay-style probability.
Convert combined probability to fair American odds via implied probability.
Compare fair odds against the standard teaser price to compute EV at $100 stake.

Try it inline

Prefilled with realistic defaults; change any field and the URL updates so you can share or bookmark the scenario. Same calculator that lives on /desk/tools/teaser.

Open teaser calculator →

Wong teasers and the 3 / 7 rule

The classic football teaser bumps a side through both 3 and 7. A 6-point teaser of an NFL underdog at +1.5 becomes +7.5; a 6-point teaser of a favorite at -7.5 becomes -1.5. Both cross the two dominant margins.

Best legs cross both 3 and 7 in the same teaser direction
Per-leg hit rates of 72–76% are commonly cited but vary by season and rule changes
Avoid legs where the teaser pushes you through low-frequency margins only
College football has more variance and weaker key numbers

Reading the calculator output

The combined probability and fair price reveal how aggressive the teaser is at the per-leg rate you used. EV at the standard market price tells you whether the offered ticket is competitive.

Fair odds tighter than standard price → positive EV
Fair odds wider than standard price → negative EV at this hit rate
Stress-test by dropping per-leg rate 2-3 points to see how fast EV evaporates
Track realized hit rate and compare to your assumption every season

Two-leg 6-point teaser snapshot

Per-leg 74% hit rate at standard NFL prices.

Field	Value	Reading
Per-leg hit rate	74%	Common across-key-number rate
Combined probability	54.76%	0.74 x 0.74
Fair American odds	-121	From implied probability
Standard market price	-120	Essentially fair

At a 74% per-leg rate, the most common 2-leg 6-pt price is roughly fair — small per-leg drops flip the sign.

Teaser strategy guide visual summary from SharkSnip.

Responsible-use note

Analytics should support disciplined decision-making, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet only where legal, never risk money you cannot afford to lose, and use limits before volume increases.

FAQ

What is a Wong teaser?

A Wong teaser is a teaser of an NFL spread between +1.5 and +2.5 or -7.5 and -8.5 that crosses both the 3 and 7 key numbers when moved 6 points.

Why does the calculator need per-leg hit rate?

Teaser EV is sensitive to per-leg probability at the teased spread, not the original spread. Use historical key-number coverage rates as a starting point and adjust for season and matchup.

Are 7-point teasers better than 6-point teasers?

Sometimes. The extra half-point can cross another scoring band, but the standard price is usually worse. Run the calculator on both at the same per-leg rate to compare.

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