Brandon Allen

"Hello, New York Giants fans, and welcome to another edition of the Locked On Giants podcast. My name is Patricia Traina, your host, and on today's Locked On Giants podcast, we'll talk a little bit about what went down at practice, the last practice of pre-season during Wednesday's practice. A couple of things worth mentioning, but first, my 53-man roster projection is here. So let's get right into it because we got a lot of stuff to cover. Now this is obviously based on the current state of the roster, and this is before the Jets pre-season finale, where roughly about five to seven guys can probably sway things one way or another. So this is going to be my only roster projection on this show. I'll probably do one more post-game on New York Giants On SI, but let's get into it. All right, we'll start off with quarterback. Easy peasy. It's going to be two. Jackson Dart, Jameis Winston. I think if they keep a third quarterback, that person is going to go to the practice squad. I think you have to keep a third quarterback somewhere. Again, on the practice squad, because just in case something happens with Jackson Dart, you want to have somebody who can, you can bring up from the practice squad if you need a backup to Jameis Winston, should you need him to start. So whether that's Brandon Allen or Jake Hayner, I don't know which one of those two it's going to be, but I think a third guy goes to the practice squad. Running backs. I'm going with four. Najee Harris, Cam Scadaboo, Tyrone Tracy, Devon Singletary. Now, as far as the pecking order goes, I still think it's going to be a committee approach, and it's going to depend on the opponent, the situation and all that stuff. I don't know that, you know, you can honestly say that one guy is going to be the definite starter week in and week out. And again, with starters, it's basically who takes the first snap of the game. So, you know, I do think though, if Najee Harris, you know, does indeed make the team, and I think he will, he might be put on a pitch count initially, because remember, he's just coming off of that Achilles injury, hasn't really gone through a whole summer training camp. So, I could see a scenario where Cam Scadaboo handles a lot of the heavy lifting initially, and they just continue to build up a ramp up Najee Harris to where he can take on some of that pounding later on in the year. Tight ends. Now, I put Patrick Ricard, the full back, in the tight end group. So, I have the Giants keeping four. Isaiah Legley, Theo Johnson, Chris Mannertz, and Patrick Ricard, the full back. Mannertz was a guy that initially I wondered if they would keep him since he basically kind of does the same thing as Ricard. But after seeing that Mannertz was part of the leadership council, the Eight-Man Leadership Council, I think it's safe to say he's making the team. Theo Johnson has been dealing with a shoulder injury. He missed practice on Wednesday because of what John Harbaugh said was a shoulder injury. So, that prompted the Giants to bring in another tight end, a kid that they had had on their mini camp roster, a guy who was a tryout. I don't think Theo's injury is anything to worry about. I think the reason they brought in the extra tight end was to have enough bodies to go through the preseason finale. But that's something to keep an eye on with Theo Johnson because shoulder injury, then you got to wonder how effective he's going to be as a blocker moving forward. All right, wide receiver. I'm going with six. Now, before I give you my six, it was during Wednesday's practice, Malik neighbors went through the practice but left early roughly about 20 minutes or so before the practice actually ended, walked off the field with a trainer. John Harbaugh told the media that it wasn't part of the plan for Malik, he said as far as he knew, there was no injury involved, that normally he's updated right after practice if somebody has an injury, but it's something to keep an eye on. I don't think it's anything to be worried about because if it was, Malik wouldn't have walked off under his own power, he would have probably needed some help to walk off. I don't think it's anything to be concerned about. Remember, Malik is going through his first week of getting jostled around now because he's not wearing the red contact jersey or no contact jersey, I should say. There could be some getting used to the soreness and whatnot. That's my perspective on anything. Also remember, the Giants have a walk-through practice on Thursday. It's going to be closed to the media. They have the game on Friday. Malik's not playing in the game. They are off on Saturday. Malik's going to have three days to recover from whatever it is he might be feeling. Again, it could just be general soreness from having Gatton knocked around just a little bit as he continues his ramp up. I right now am not worried about that. That said, my six making the Giants roster, my projection. Malik Neighbors, Malachi Fields, Darius Slayton, Odell Beckham Jr., Braxton Berrios and Dalyne Cambry. I do not have Dornell Mooney making the roster. I still think that it is possible the Giants look to trade Mooney. Now, just let me go into why I picked some of these guys. The unfortunate ACL injury suffered by Calvin Austin pretty much opened up a roster spot. And I thought, you know, coming in, Odell Beckham Jr. was 50-50. To Odell's credit, he has been having a good week of practice. John Harbaugh even said that he had a great week of practice this week. And Odell looked pretty darn good in Wednesday's practice. So, any doubt about Odell making it, I think we can erase it. Now, I have Braxton Berrios for the return specialist job. Also, he can give you something on offense if you need him to. And Dailen Cambry is purely a special teamer. By the way, Jalen Hyatt hasn't practiced in, I don't know, it's got to be at least two, two and a half weeks, maybe three weeks. He's going to IR. I mean, no doubt about it. His Giants career is done. And it's a shame, but guy's going to stay healthy and he hasn't helped himself. So he's going to need to go on IR, maybe get an injury settlement. And they just, you know, get that roster spot. Or, you know, they give his jersey number back to Odell if Odell wants it. Okay. Off and some line. I've got nine. So you have your five starters, Andrew Thomas, John Runyon Jr. at left guard, John Michael Schmitz at center, Francis Malinoa at right guard, Germaine Illuminaur at right tackle. Your backups, Marcus Bowe, JC. Davis, Brian Hudson, and Aaron Stinney. I'm going with Brian Hudson over Lucas Patrick. Lucas Patrick's knee still makes me a little nervous. Brian Hudson, I think, has more upside. If you're talking about keeping a young center, I would go with Hudson, who can also play guard, by the way. I get it, Lucas Patrick is a little bit more established, a lot more established actually, but Hudson is healthier and younger and able to bounce back quicker from the bumps and bruises. So I think they go with the nine. And as was the case yesterday, they traded Joshua Azudu. So Azudu no longer in the picture. And I don't think Evin Neil is in the picture either. I mean, if anything, maybe Evin Neil goes to the practice squad. It's a no risk type of guarantee. Assuming that he gets to waivers, maybe you put them on the practice one, you continue to develop him. But at this point, I just wonder if they're gonna go that route or if they're just gonna say, okay, you know what, we gave it a shot and it didn't work out, so we're gonna move on. So that is my offense. I think if we add everything up, it comes to 25 on offense, which means we've got another 28 guys to do, all on defense and special teams. So I will do that section for you right after this. Hey, Giants fans, support for today's episode comes from Indeed Sponsored Jobs. When workplace chaos hits and you need the right hire, Indeed Sponsored Jobs helps connect employers with candidates who match specific needs so that less time gets spent searching. People are finding quality hires on Indeed right now. And in the minute that I've been talking to you, companies like yours have made 27 hires on Indeed according to Indeed data worldwide. When you need the right person to cut through the chaos, this is a job for Indeed Sponsored Jobs. And listeners of this show will get a $75 sponsor job credit to help get their job the premium status it deserves at indeed.com/podcast. Just go to indeed.com/podcast right now and support the Locked On Giants podcast by saying that you heard about Indeed on this episode. indeed.com/podcastterms and conditions apply, need to hire, this is a job for Indeed-sponsored jobs. All right, Giants fans, welcome back to the Locked On Giants podcast. We are part of the Locked On Podcast Network now, the number one sports podcast network in America, celebrating our 10th anniversary all year long. I'm your host, Patricia Traina, credential member of the Giants Media for Locked On, as well as for New York Giants On SI, which is where all of my written work. Welcome to the Blue Crew, my newcomers and everybody in between. Thanks so much for spending part of your day with us here on Locked On Giants or if you're making us your first listen of the day, I appreciate that as well. We are looking at my 53-man roster projection, initial 53-man roster projection, because you know there's going to be tweaks made, there's going to be some additions made in the coming days after the rosters are set. This is an initial look. Let's do defense now. We're going to do defense and special teams. Starting with the defense of Lyman, I've got five guys right now, but I have an asterisk, and I'll tell you what that is as soon as I give you the names. So the five guys I have are DJ Reader, Darius Alexander, Shelby Harris, Chauncey Golston, who I am counting as a defensive Lyman even though he can be, you know, an outside linebacker. And I also have Bobby Jamison Travis. I do not have Leike Foutou making it. Now here's the asterisk. The Giants are going to get another defensive lineman. They have to. They cannot go into the season with two guys who are over 30. I mean, Shelby Harris, he's had his reps managed all spring, all summer long. The Giants defensive line group right now has an average age of 28 years. That's all the guys together. Based on these five projections that I just made, that average age jumps up to over 30 years. So the 28 years actually is second oldest on the 90-man roster behind quarterbacks. Quarterbacks would be the oldest. But once everything is all trimmed down according to my projections here, the defensive line group becomes the oldest unit on the team. You got to get more youth on that. You just got to. Now, whether that means sending Bobby James and Travis to the practice squad, whether that means, I don't know, cutting, gosh, I don't think they would cut anybody. I think James and Travis would have to be the guy out, the odd man out. But I am not going to be surprised if the Giants bring in another defense alignment. I think they need to. Okay. Now, let's do inside linebackers. I'm going to go with five at this position. And my five are Arvel Rees, Tremaine Edmonds, Micah McFadden, Jack Kelly and Zaire Barnes. Barnes, special teams, all right? Your special team, your core special team people are going to be your linebackers, your defensive backs, your receivers. You gotta allow for special teams. So I figured there's going to be about five to six guys who maybe are going to be core special teamers. Zaire Barnes is one of them. And I think Zaire Barnes, again, if you need him to give you a few snaps on defense, I think he's a little bit better of a player over say Darius Moulso, who, you know, I like the kid, but I just don't know that he makes this roster. All right, outside linebackers. This is kind of easy. I actually went with four here. Initially I was going with three, but I'm going to go with four again because of special teams. So the four I have, Brian Burns, Abdul Carter, Kayvon Thibodeau, and Caleb Murphy. Murphy, special teams. All right. Now, yes, there was going to be a way they could get all three of the main guys on the field. That's for another show though. We'll discuss that in another show down the line. But those four, I think, have the best chance of making the roster. Four safeties. I'm keeping four safeties. Javon Holland, Tyler Newbon, Jason Pinnock, and Ardarius Washington. Now, Washington can also be like a cornerback if you need him, a slack cornerback. So he's kind of like that swing man, if you will, on the defensive side. The only question here is, which of the four are the starters? I think Javon Holland is a lock. Tyler Newbon's been having a little bit better of a practice. So he's making more of a claim to keep his starting job. But don't rule out Jason Pinnock. And I say Jason Pinnock over Ardarius Washington, because Ardarius Washington is going to be that chest piece, that swing guy, whether you put him at deep safety, box safety or slot. So he's going to get moved around. I think Pinnock is definitely the biggest challenger to Newbon's starting job. And right now, I think Newbon has a little bit better grasp on it. But that's to be seen. There's one more game to be played. So we'll see if that holds true. Cornerbacks, I have them keeping seven. And I know it's a lot, but I have questions about this group. All right, some of the seven I have them keeping. Adibo, Paulson Adibo, Greg Newsom II, Colton Hood, Drew Phillips, Deontay Banks, Art Green and Nick Jones. Art Green and Nick Jones are special teamers. Green and Jones last year were two of the better gunners that this team had. So unless somebody emerges in this preseason game against the Jets, then I think those two guys you got to consider, all right? They don't, you know, Nick Jones doesn't give you a whole lot as a cornerback, whereas Art Green can. He could play, you know, outside or in the slot. But I'm talking just strictly for special teams. And by the way, I don't think, you know, by the time they play Dallas, I don't think they'll have seven cornerbacks, but we're talking initial projections right now. So those are the guys that I have at cornerback. And then finally, we have the specialist. This is kind of easy. Ben Mann, Jordan Stout, the punter and Dominic Savada as the place kicker. Easy. I mean, Savada, he's just been lights out. Ben Sauls is going to kick somewhere in the NFL. And I'm just wondering if maybe they look to trade him. I mean, I could see that being a possibility. It's not the first time the Giants have tried to have traded a kicker. They traded Brandon McManus. I think a few years ago, they traded Chris Boswell. So yeah, don't rule out the possibility of a trade. Just when we think we got this figured out with the Giants and the moves they're going to make and whatnot, they go and they find day three picks. So those day three picks, by the way, are going to be very valuable when the Giants get to the draft because they can package them up to move up the board if they need to. So you got to like what the Giants are doing with regards to taking guys that don't fit into their long-term plans or their season plans, I should say, and moving them to get draft assets. All right, so that is my 53. Tell me what you think about it in the comments below if you're watching on YouTube or if you want to drop me a letter or an email, I should say. Those of you who are listening to the audio on our podcast platforms, I'd be curious to know who you agree with, who you disagree with, and so forth. All right, coming up next, Giants did have a practice on Wednesday. Few things to come out of it. We'll talk about that when we come back. Hey, Giants fans, running a business shouldn't feel like you're trying to connect a bunch of systems that were never designed to work together. One app for accounting, another for inventory, another for sales, and somehow none of them talk to each other. And that's where Odoo comes in. Odoo is an all-in-one business management software that brings every part of your business together into one powerful platform, helping your team move faster, stay organized, and focus on growing the business instead of managing software. The best organizations know that success isn't just about talent, it's about having everyone working towards the same goal. And that's true in sports, just like it is in business. Just look at how the New York Giants have played this summer with a cohesiveness across various units, whether it's first team, second team, 13, and so forth. Great organizations win because operations matter, and that's why you should get Odoo. Odoo was one platform to manage, grow, and scale your business. And you could try it for free right now at odoo.com/locked on. That's odoo.com/locked on. All right, Giant fans, welcome back to the Locked On Giants Podcast. I am your host, Patricia Traina. And big news, everybody. The all-new Locked On Giants, Everydayer Club, aka the Blue Crew, the new program is here. We have expanded it. All right. So some of the benefits members get include an expanded daily newsletter, exclusive material in that newsletter written by yours truly. You get an invitation to our regular AMA calls. We call them lunch hour calls because I usually hold them on a Friday during lunch hour. You get membership into our Discord channel. It's a group of Giant fans who are already there. They talk football. They update each other. They're a nice little family, a good group of people. So you get membership into that Discord group. You also get other little bonuses, including ad-free episodes of Locked On Giants and other little things that I tend to throw in there. You just never know what's going to come. Oh, and of course you also get one-on-one texting with yours truly. So you can check out all the details. We are offering one month free if you sign up for an annual subscription, all right? So you can get the information if you go to lockedonnygiants.supercast.com, all right? So check that out. Again, that is lockedonnygiants.supercast.com. All right, Giant fans, there was a practice today. Brandon Brown spoke. And a couple of things that I want to touch upon in these last few minutes that we have here on the show today. Brandon Brown was asked about the John Harbaugh effect. And basically, how does that affect their job in the front office? And what I really, really like about what Brandon Brown had to say, and by the way, every time Brandon Brown speaks, I just love listening to the guy. He is just so well-spoken. Why this man is in a GM somewhere is just a mystery to me. But selfishly speaking, I hope he doesn't become a GM because I just think he's amazing and I'm glad the Giants have him. But Brandon said that Harbaugh holds everybody accountable, including in the front office. That when you sit down and enter a meeting with him, you better have a plan. You can't just go in there and throw ideas out and go, you know, Hammond Hall and whatnot. Everybody has to have a plan. And you know, what's interesting is if you look at what the Giants have been doing in terms of the front office, when was the last time you can recall the Giants being so proactive in terms of trading away guys that didn't fit the long-term plans? I mean, in the past, coaches would hold on to the guys and they'd say, you know, look, I need these guys, I got to get through the pre-season, so let's not cut them, you know, let's see if they can turn things around. The Giants, you know, under Harbaugh, he knows who's going to fit and who's not going to fit. And if he says to Joe Shane and Brandon Brown, hey, Daniel Felleli doesn't fit in my plans anymore, or Joshua Azudu doesn't fit in my plans anymore, see if he can't get a draft pick for them. They're being more proactive and more in touch with what the league needs. I mean, kudos to the front office for actually having a better finger on the pulse of the league and who needs what. Some teams in the past or in the past, there were times that you just got the sense that the Giants really didn't do it until cut down day. If you're waiting till the last minute, that's not good. They're being a lot more proactive and I applaud them for that. But the other thing that Brandon said, and you can kind of see it, is that the giant players when they are banged up, they don't sit and linger on the sideline. They get back in there as soon as humanly possible. And the reason for that is because there is a underlying fear amongst the locker room that a guy will get Wally Pitt out of his roster spot, out of his job. And you know what? Good. That's good that Harbaugh instilled that. Okay, so that being said, there's definitely a new culture that Harbaugh has brought about. It's been competitive. It's been more direct. You know, I've talked about this before on the show, that head coaches come in here in the past and they say, we want to win, we want to be this, we want to be that. And they have no idea how to do it. Or they do things that kind of fly in the face of what they want to accomplish. Case in point, when Dable was here, we want to win. But how are you going to win if you're running a country club or a training camp? So different philosophies, but Harbaugh's has been more direct. And that's good. All right, earlier in the show, I mentioned Malik Neighbors left practice early. I don't think it's anything to be concerned about. You know, hopefully it's nothing with nothing. Now again, we don't have access to the walkthrough on Thursday. The next time we see John Harbaugh is going to be after the game on Friday. I'm sure the question will come up about Malik, even though Malik's not going to play. So until then, I'm not going to sit here and fret about it. Calvin Austin, I think I mentioned already, unfortunately, torn ACL. What a bummer for that kid. He worked so hard and he was part of that, you know, going to be part of that rotation. And it's just not going to happen now for him. It's a shame. It really is because you never want to see that. Okay, what else? Some injury updates real quick. I mentioned Theo Johnson dealing with a shoulder issue. I don't think it's anything serious, but something to keep an eye on nonetheless. Shelby Harris had his reps manage. Jalen Hyatt, you know, nice knowing you, Jalen. Good luck on your next team. Really unfortunate there. Francis Malinoa and Jermaine Aluminor. Malinoa with the stinger. Aluminor had, I don't know what it was, but it was never disclosed. They were both back at practice, so that's good. The other thing I'll just mention real quick is that Harbaugh hasn't said if he plans to play the starters. Now, you know, for some reason he likes to be secretive about it. My guess, and you know, I get it. Maybe there's going to be a little, you know, reluctance because the starters, you know, based on what happened with Calvin Austin, you know, you don't want to risk somebody getting hurt this close to the start of the season, which to me is, I don't know if I agree with that philosophy because injuries are going to happen regardless. You know, they could strike anytime, anywhere, any place. I think what Harbaugh will do is probably give the starters and key reserves a series or two at the most, kind of like what he did for the first preseason game. I don't think you need to play them like this is a dress rehearsal. I don't think that is necessary because, look, if you don't play them in this game, now they're going over three weeks without having played live reps. And no, I don't count practice as live reps because that's a controlled environment, whereas a game is not as controlled. So I suspect you will see the players go in there, and it will be very, very conservative. Like, for example, with Jackson Dart, maybe all he does is hand the ball off most of the game or most of his time in there. And then you get them out of there, and you get the backups in there. I don't think you'll see guys like Andrew Thomas or Bryan Burns or Tremaine Edmonds, guys who are pretty much established. I don't think they'll get a chance to play. Look, bottom line is that Harbaugh has worked these guys really, really hard this summer, which is a good thing. And, you know, even though it's not the same as live reps, it's been, the reps that they have gotten is quality reps. And sometimes that could be just as good. So that's my guess for what Harbaugh does against the Jets. You know, again, maybe some guys get a few snaps here and there. And there are still some battles and whatnot that need to be resolved. But we're going to talk about that on another show this week. So plenty more still to come here on the Locked On Giants podcast. And with that said, that's going to do it for this edition. Again, thank you so much for tuning in to the Locked On Giants Podcast. Or if you made us your first Listen of the Day, we appreciate you. We appreciate our everydayers and our newcomers. And we will see you again tomorrow, giant fans."

"Can you not keep Brandon Allen on the practice squad?"

"Can you not keep Brandon Allen on the practice squad?"

"Bill BarnwellAug 25, 2026, 06:25 AM ETCloseBill Barnwell is a senior NFL writer for ESPN.com. He analyzes football on and off the field like no one else on the planet, writing about in-season X's and O's, offseason transactions and so much more. He is the host of the Bill Barnwell Show podcast, with episodes released weekly. Barnwell joined ESPN in 2011 as a staff writer at Grantland.Multiple AuthorsOn Monday, I was an optimist, picking five NFL teams I expect to improve in 2026. Today, unfortunately, we hit the opposite side of the ledger. I know not to check my mentions on social media for a few days after this annual column, and I take a little longer to answer those texts from people inside the league. "Did you really have to pick us?" ... there's never a good response.Don't blame me. I don't have any vested interest or desire to see any team do poorly or struggle. In a zero-sum league, though, five teams improving means that five teams have to decline. And using data that has helped point toward future downswings, I will identify five teams that are likely to win fewer games in 2026.Since 2017, the decline column has gone 34-9 at picking teams that will fall short of their win total from the previous season, including an adjustment for the shift from 16 games to 17 per season. The improve/decline columns overall are 69-17 (.802) during that span, with a 50-36 mark (.581) against the preseason over-unders archived on Pro-Football-Reference.com. The average decline amounts to about 3.4 wins per 17 games.Last year, the column correctly predicted four of the five teams. The one miss was the Colts, who went 8-9 in 2024 before getting off to a white-hot start in 2025, hitting their bye at 8-2. An offense that looked perfect started to show cracks, lost Daniel Jones to a torn Achilles and went into free fall. Without Jones or DeForest Buckner for much of the second half, the Colts lost seven straight to finish 8-9 for the second consecutive season.Subscribe: 'The Bill Barnwell Show'But the other four teams suffered substantial steps backward. The Vikings went from 14-3 to 9-8, as J.J. McCarthy couldn't deliver on expectations under center, and Kevin O'Connell's mastery of one-score games slipped in 2025. I'm not sure that one was too surprising.The remaining three squads, all favorites to compete for the Super Bowl, each stunningly missed the playoffs.Following a 12-5 mark, the Commanders fell to 5-12 last season with one of the league's oldest rosters, a lack of young talent and Jayden Daniels suffering through an injury-riddled season. The Lions were 15-2 in 2024, but issues with the offensive line and offensive infrastructure, injuries on defense and a tougher schedule knocked them back to 9-8.And then there were the Chiefs, who did the unthinkable. Expecting the Chiefs to go 15-2 again probably wasn't realistic even without knowing that Patrick Mahomes would finish the season with a torn ACL. Andy Reid's team somehow fell from 10-0 in one-score games to 1-9, and a 6-11 Chiefs team missed the playoffs for the first time since 2014.If you read Monday's improvement column, you know that the Chiefs and Lions are two of the teams I'm (perhaps unsurprisingly) expecting to improve in 2026. I'm going to start this year's decline column with a team that was in last year's improve column.Note: Schedule strength is via ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI).See more: Five teams set to improveJump to: CAR | CHI | DEN | JAX | NEChicago BearsRecord in 2025: 11-6 (7-4 in games decided by seven points or fewer) Point differential in 2025: plus-26 Projected strength of schedule: 10th toughestI don't typically put these teams in any real order. When Bears head coach Ben Johnson said his team was the No. 1 regression candidate heading into 2026, though, how else could I start the decline column?Johnson, who has talked about the importance of generating passing EPA, isn't naive about what advanced metrics expect to happen to the Bears. And he's not being naive or unrealistic in suggesting that the Bears have a shot at defying those odds. The 2025 Bears are the classic example of a team that should project to decline the following year. And the 2026 Bears have the sort of roster to prevail nonetheless. Let's take a closer look at both sides.If you were drawing a blueprint for a team that was likely to appear in this column, you would essentially be describing last season's Bears. An unlucky team in 2023 and 2024, the Bears got far more than their fair share of breaks for most of the 2025 season.Johnson helped drive a massive offensive improvement in terms of creating explosive plays, but the Bears were also spectacular at holding on to the football. They turned the ball over a league-low 11 times last season. They forced 33 turnovers, which helped keep afloat a defense that otherwise struggled. The Bears were 27th in points allowed per drive on possessions that didn't end with a fumble recovery or an interception. The Kevin Byard-led secondary picked off 4.3% of opposing passes, the highest rate in the NFL.Some of that luck will not occur again. The Bears recovered 66.7% of the fumbles in their games last season, again the highest rate in the league. Twenty-three teams have posted a fumble recovery rate of 65% or more in any given season since 1990. Those teams went 0-for-23 at replicating that the following season, collectively recovering 49.3% of fumbles.Forcing fumbles is a skill, to which Charles Tillman-era Bears fans can attest, but what happens once the ball hits the ground is almost entirely random. The defense forced only 17 fumbles last season, which was right around the league average of 16.8. The offense fumbled 16 times but fell on 12 of those balls for a 75% recovery clip. (In the postseason, the Bears forced six fumbles in two games on defense and failed to recover one.)Forcing more takeaways than anybody else in football and turning the ball over less often than anybody else is a great way to lead the league in turnover margin. The Bears did, posting a plus-22 mark. The Texans, at plus-17, were the only team within an eight-turnover margin of Chicago.And though Johnson is right to put explosive play generation alongside or even ahead of turnover margin in affecting the outcome of games, teams will win a lot when the turnover margin is weighted so heavily in their favor. Turnover margins have shrunk toward zero as offenses have gotten better at protecting the football and shrunken their passing depth in recent years, but 22 teams have posted turnover margins of plus-20 or more since 1990. Their average record was just short of 13-4 after adjusting for the 17-game schedule.You know what's coming next. Excluding the 2025 Bears, the other 21 teams posted an average turnover margin of plus-3 the following season, with their margin declining by more than 19 takeaways on average. And 20 of those 21 teams won fewer games the following year, with the 2013 Patriots, who sustained their 12-4 record from the previous season, as the exception.The Bears' season started with a frustrating loss to the Vikings, with Chicago leading most of the way before melting down in the fourth quarter. It proved to be an anomaly, as an offense that ranked 18th in EPA per play during the first three quarters of games was also the best in the NFL from the beginning of the fourth quarter onward. That -- and some luck -- led to some dramatic, narrow victories; after a 3-7 record in one-score games in 2024, Chicago went 7-4 in games decided by seven points or fewer in 2025.In Week 4 against the Raiders, the Bears drove down the field for a touchdown to take a 25-24 lead with 1:39 to go. Their 2-point attempt fell incomplete, giving the Raiders a chance to win the game. Geno Smith drove Las Vegas into position for a 54-yard kick, but veteran kicker Daniel Carlson had his potential winning attempt blocked.After a bye the following week, the Bears were trailing the Commanders by two points and faced a third-and-1 on their 40-yard line with 3:10 left. A first down would have allowed the Commanders to start chewing up the clock and cost the Bears their timeouts. Instead, Jayden Daniels fumbled an exchange with Jacory Croskey-Merritt, giving the Bears the football and a short field. They hit a 38-yard field goal to win the game.Though the offense put the Bears up 41-27 with 4:53 to go in the fourth quarter against the Bengals, the defense quickly blew that lead, as the Bengals scored two touchdowns. A 2-pointer on the first score gave the Bengals a 42-41 lead with 54 seconds left, but Caleb Williams scrambled for a first down on third-and-10, then hit Colston Loveland for a 58-yard touchdown to win the game.In Week 10, the Bears trailed the Giants 20-10 with six minutes left, but Chicago drove the length of the field for a touchdown, got the ball back with a short field after a 26-yard punt, then quickly drove downfield for another Williams scramble for a touchdown to win again.The following week against Minnesota, the defense allowed the Vikings and McCarthy to drive the length of the field for a touchdown to take a 17-16 lead with 50 seconds left. Special teams won the game here, as Devin Duvernay returned the ensuing kickoff 56 yards to set up a winning field goal by Cairo Santos.While trailing the Packers 16-6 in the fourth quarter -- despite knocking Jordan Love out of the game earlier -- a long Bears drive ended in a 43-yard field goal. With 1:59 to go and two timeouts, Chicago successfully recovered an onside kick to retain possession. On fourth-and-4, Williams hit Jahdae Walker for one of his six catches last season to tie the score with 24 seconds left. The Packers then fumbled a snap on fourth-and-1 in field goal range on the first drive of overtime. Williams then threw one of his best passes of the season to DJ Moore for a 46-yard score.But in so many of those games, even the league's best offense wasn't the whole story. Either the defense blew the lead, the team forced a takeaway at the most opportune time or special teams worked magic in Chicago's favor. The Bears were 18th in special teams DVOA over the full season, so it wasn't as though they were dominating for entire games with that facet.Do the offensive exploits from Williams in those situations matter? Of course. Great players show up in key moments, and Williams did, including on his miraculous touchdown pass in the divisional round that sent the game to overtime. But when we think about great clutch players, it's usually stars who excel throughout games and then sustain (or even slightly elevate) their play when things matter most. Williams was 20th in Total QBR through the first three quarters of games but third best from the fourth quarter on. You can tell yourself that Williams needed time to play his way into games, or that the game slowed down for him in key moments, but it's difficult to find many QBs who have that sort of split for any sort of extended multiyear stretch.Here's what I can say confidently: The Bears cannot expect to win 11 games again in 2026 with the same formula. The good news for fans is that they don't appear to be expecting to do so. General manager Ryan Poles made aggressive moves to try to improve the defense, with seven of Chicago's 13 most-used players on that side of the ball in 2025 no longer on the roster, including the four most-used defenders in Byard, Jaquan Brisker, Nahshon Wright and Tremaine Edmunds.The Bears were also banged up on defense, ranking 26th in adjusted games lost while losing players such as Dayo Odeyingbo and Kyler Gordon for significant stretches. Johnson says he hopes that his defense is healthier this season, but free agent addition Coby Bryant, who starred at free safety for the Seahawks a year ago, has already been sidelined for most of the upcoming season after undergoing left knee surgery earlier this month. Gordon is on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list because of a calf issue.play1:15Why Caleb Williams needs to be more like Clark Kent than SupermanThere are also real concerns about the pass rush, which ranked 29th in pressure rate despite blitzing at the 12th-highest rate in the NFL. Poles didn't make a significant addition up front, where he has signed three starting linemen to big contracts. The Bears were able to approach adequacy only because of Montez Sweat, who made it to 10 sacks for only the second time in his seven-year career. Though Sweat is a good player, and Gervon Dexter Sr. could break out, the Bears don't project to have a significantly better pass rush this year, barring a significant in-season trade. And if Sweat isn't as productive as he was last season, the front four could be seriously lacking.The more plausible way that the Bears break away from that 2025 formula, of course, is by the offense going nuclear. The teams that defy these sorts of obvious regressions tend to do so by massively upgrading the most important spots on their rosters, leading with head coach and quarterback. The Bears didn't change either of those, but they're naturally hoping that Johnson can unlock that sort of potential in Williams.Johnson says his goal is to set the single-season scoring record, and that might be too optimistic, but the numbers I've mentioned earlier make it clear that the Bears have some room to grow on offense in 2026. The Bears were ninth in EPA per play and 11th in points scored per drive last season.Could they be the best offense in football in 2026? Given their young talent at quarterback and in the playmaker spots, as well as the presence of Johnson as one of the league's foremost offensive minds, it would hardly be shocking. Williams improved as the season went along, jumping from 19th in Total QBR during the first half of the season to 10th from Week 10 on. Loveland looked like one of the best tight ends in the league during his second-half breakout. Luther Burden III emerged as a difference-maker and one of the league's most efficient wideouts on a route-by-route basis while Rome Odunze was sidelined late in the campaign, and the trade of Moore opened a spot for both wideouts to be in the lineup.Of course, to be the best offense in football, virtually everything has to go right. It rarely does. Burden is already dealing with a groin issue. Running back Kyle Monangai is week-to-week because of a knee injury. Left tackle is a serious question, with as many as four potential candidates competing to fill in for the injured Ozzy Trapilo, who just came off the PUP list. And Garrett Bradbury should be a downgrade for Drew Dalman at center. Chicago's line was remarkably healthy a year ago before the Trapilo injury struck in the playoffs, with the offense ranking among the healthiest in the NFL.As a pro, Burden has as many games with negative receiving yardage (three) as ones in which he has topped 70 receiving yards. And Odunze has caught 51% of his targets as a pro. The Bears' young players all have significant promise, and it would hardly be a surprise to see some of them break out, but it's probably too optimistic to expect every one of them to have the sort of season you might project from what they did in a small sample of the 2025 campaign.All of this adds up to a universe in which Bears fans get some of what they want in 2026 without having everything go right. I wouldn't be shocked if Williams takes another step forward and the offense follows in kind. With real concerns about the defense and a guarantee that the Bears won't be quite as lucky with turnovers and special teams work late in games, though, I'm not sure even an improved offense can get Chicago to 11 wins this season.play0:44Why Damien Woody loves Ben Johnson's goal to have 'highest-scoring offense ever'Denver BroncosRecord in 2025: 14-3 (9-2 in games decided by seven points or fewer) Point differential in 2025: plus-90 Projected strength of schedule: 15th easiestBroncos fans understandably believe 2025 could have been a season for the ages. Blessed with a dominant defense and an offense that came alive late in games, Denver came within a special teams penalty and a missed completion of potentially going 16-1 in the regular season. And after beating the Bills in a classic game during the divisional round, the Broncos didn't have an injured Bo Nix for the AFC Championship Game, and they still nearly beat Drake Maye and the Patriots with Jarrett Stidham under center.Sean Payton & Co. added Jaylen Waddle in the offseason and will return 31 of the 33 players who played at least 300 offensive or defensive snaps for them in 2025, so it's fair to wonder whether the Broncos might simply run the same record back with a virtually identical roster. Similar to the Bears, though, I'm not sure the Broncos can realistically get the same results from the process that led to that 14-win season in 2025.For one, they can't count on all of those players being available quite as often in 2026. Though the offense was injured at about a league-average rate, the defense was the third healthiest in the NFL, per FTN's adjusted games lost. The only starter who sat out more than three games was oft-injured linebacker Dre Greenlaw, who was one of the two players not returning to the roster. (The other is defensive lineman John Franklin-Myers.) This was the league's fifth-oldest team on a snap-weighted age basis a year ago, and I'd be a little concerned about some of those veterans getting worn down and staying healthy through a full 2026 season.Vance Joseph's defense had been excellent since the start of 2024, defying concerns about defenses maintaining their consistency from year to year. Though the Broncos were among the league's elite units for most of the season, I'd just point out that things began to get iffy down the stretch.Denver was second in the NFL in points allowed per possession through its Week 11 bye. But over the next four games -- facing the Commanders, Raiders, Packers and Jaguars -- that fell to 21st. The defense was propped up by facing backup quarterbacks Chris Oladokun and Trey Lance over the final two weeks of the regular season, then it gave up 30 points to the Bills in that divisional round thriller. The defense was excellent in the conference championship game, but that was also played in awful weather on a day when neither offense did much because of the conditions, at least for most of the second half.The Broncos' defense should still be good, of course. Denver has the best cornerback in football in Pat Surtain II, arguably the most underrated edge rusher in the league in Nik Bonitto and a true interior disrupter in Zach Allen. I'm just not quite as confident that the Broncos will be a top-five unit in 2026, in part because of injuries and they weren't necessarily playing that way against starters down the stretch.Though there were signs of growth from Nix in his second season as a passer, the Broncos roughly stayed put in offensive efficiency, actually dropping from 15th in points scored per drive in 2024 to 18th in 2025. Waddle should provide a needed upgrade over Troy Franklin and Pat Bryant, playing across from Courtland Sutton, with the hope that the former Dolphins receiver can serve as a valuable contributor on the sort of in-breakers Nix hasn't targeted consistently over his first two years.If the Broncos don't improve on offense to make up for a possible defensive decline, I'm not sure their formula will lead to 14 wins. The Broncos went 9-2 in one-score games, and though they could have won both of those narrow defeats, they also had some very generous breaks late in games.In Week 5, the Broncos came back from a 17-3 deficit in the fourth quarter to take an 18-17 lead against Philadelphia. On the ensuing Eagles drive, a fourth-and-4 conversion for 30 yards was wiped off because of an illegal shift penalty, instead producing a 23-yard punt. Nix appeared to commit intentional grounding on the next drive, but it was waved off after a lengthy delay. A personal foul on Zack Baun then extended the drive again, allowing the Broncos to run down the clock and kick a field goal to put the game out of reach.One week later in a dismal game against the Jets in Tottenham Stadium, the Broncos kicked a field goal to go up 13-11 with just over five minutes left. Marvin Mims Jr. then recovered a fumble to avoid handing the Jets a short field that would have set up an easy field goal. Though the Jets got the ball back and drove to the edge of field goal range for Nick Folk, the Broncos sacked Justin Fields twice to seal an ugly victory.The following week, the Broncos trailed the Giants 26-8 in the fourth quarter and scored three consecutive touchdowns to take a 30-26 lead. Jaxson Dart quickly drove the Giants for a touchdown to go up 32-30 with 37 seconds left, but backup kicker Jude McAtamney missed the extra point attempt that would have given New York a three-point lead. Nix hit two completions for 51 yards to get the Broncos back into field goal range, where Wil Lutz's kick won it instead of tying the score.In another ugly game, the Broncos took a 10-7 lead over the Raiders into the fourth quarter, but Nix threw an interception on his own side of the field. Daniel Carlson missed a 48-yard field goal attempt that would have tied the score at 10-10 with 4:30 to go, and the Broncos ate up the remaining time.Facing the Chiefs the following week, Harrison Butker missed an extra point attempt that would have given Kansas City a 20-16 lead with 9:57 left. Instead of needing to go for a touchdown, the Broncos could instead settle for field goals, and Lutz hit two of them on Denver's final two drives of the game to win 22-19.After their bye, the Broncos went to overtime with a Jayden Daniels-less Commanders team. Denver scored a touchdown on the opening possession, but the Commanders answered. Washington went for two to win the game, but Marcus Mariota's pass was tipped away for a Broncos victory.Finally, the Broncos needed a late touchdown to break a 13-13 tie with an Oladokun-led Chiefs team, then allowed the third-string quarterback to drive to within a yard of the red zone on the ensuing drive, but the drive stalled out.Similar to the Bears, the Broncos had a remarkable habit of getting their offense going at the right time; they were 16th in EPA per play on offense through the first three quarters of games and fifth during the fourth quarter and overtime. The Broncos also got some very well-timed special teams luck with missed kicks when it really helped transform late-game scenarios.FPI is optimistic about Denver's schedule, and getting that trip to Arrowhead out of the way against a potentially limited Patrick Mahomes in Week 1 is probably a plus for the Broncos. Ten games against the AFC West and NFC West, though, makes me think the schedule might be a little tougher than the algorithm believes. The Broncos could challenge for a division title again in 2026, but that's probably going to come in closer to the 10- or 11-win range this time.Jacksonville JaguarsRecord in 2025: 13-4 (6-2 in games decided by seven points or fewer) Point differential in 2025: plus-138 Projected strength of schedule: 12th easiestTo compare another team to the Bears, the Jaguars were also on our list of improvers a year ago, rising from the doldrums to claim an unlikely and unexpected division title. While the existence of the Titans prevented the Jags from going worst to first, jumping from 4-13 to 13-4 was a massive leap forward for coach Liam Coen's team in his first year at the helm.The most obvious indicator for the Jags as improvement candidates heading into 2025 was their sheer lack of takeaways on defense. Jacksonville picked off only six passes and forced nine takeaways all season in 2024, with the latter figure ranking last in the NFL.In 2025, Anthony Campanile's unit matched that mark by the end of Week 3, creating three takeaways in each of Jacksonville's first three games. The Jags forced 14 turnovers through Week 5 and finished with 31 by the end of the campaign, second most in the league. Jacksonville ranked in the top five in both turnover margin (plus-13, third) and fumble recovery rate (63%, fourth). As I covered in the Bears section, both of those are difficult to sustain on a year-after-year basis. Devin Lloyd, who surprisingly tied for the team lead with five picks, also left in free agency after a career year.There was another factor, though, that subtly helped the Jaguars as they went 9-1 after their midseason bye: They stopped playing starting quarterbacks. Over their first eight games of the season, the Jaguars faced the opposing team's primary and preferred signal-caller seven times. The only exception was Week 2, when Jake Browning played most of the game after Joe Burrow suffered a toe injury. But over the final nine games, the Jaguars faced the opposing starter for a complete game only twice, with the Titans getting a full start from Cam Ward and the Broncos getting one from Bo Nix. Six of the other seven games were almost entirely against second-, third- or even fourth-string options, and Justin Herbert was pulled in the fourth quarter of a blowout loss for his own safety in the seventh.The Jags started against backups in Davis Mills, Jacoby Brissett, Brady Cook and Philip Rivers, then saw Daniel Jones and Ward suffer early-game injuries that forced them from those respective contests (often an even more difficult switch for a team to navigate). More than 66% of the passes thrown against the Jaguars during this eight-game stretch were by backups. And though players such as Justin Fields and Ward weren't necessarily playing all that well, they were still a cut above replacement-level quarterbacks such as Cook and Brandon Allen.Over the full season, nearly 41% of dropbacks against the Jaguars came from quarterbacks who weren't their team's primary signal-caller. Only the Rams and Buccaneers faced backup QBs more often. Unless the 2026 Jaguars turn into the 1985 Bears and start knocking quarterbacks out of games on a regular basis, it's tough to imagine Jacksonville will face backups quite as often this season.The old Bill James plexiglass principle also applies here. Teams that make massive single-season improvements almost always give some of that success back the following year. The Jaguars jumped by nine wins from 2024 to 2025. Even if we expand the sample and adjust for the move to a 17th game, there were only 32 other teams from 1990 to 2024 to improve by seven or more wins in a given season. Those teams declined by an average of 3.8 wins per 17 games the following year, a list that includes the 2018 Jaguars, who failed to deliver on the promise the 2017 squad showed during a deep playoff run.Naturally, I'll point at the Jags going 6-2 in one-score games in 2025, including a pair of overtime victories over the Cardinals and Raiders, with the latter decided by a failed 2-point conversion attempt. Things weren't quite as dramatic or desperate as they were late in contests for the Bears and Broncos, and the Jaguars did manage big wins over playoff teams such as the Broncos, Chargers and Panthers, which helped Jacksonville's point differential grow more in line with that of a 12-win team.For the third team in a row, the natural question is whether the offense can pick up some of the slack. Trevor Lawrence looked excellent down the stretch, throwing 15 touchdowns against one pick across his final six games of the last season. Of course, Lawrence had a similar span the last time the Jags broke out in a coach's first season, but Doug Pederson & Co. weren't able to coax that same level of play out of the 2021 No. 1 pick over the ensuing two years.Jacksonville fans will hope for a return to form from wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. and a continuation of the late-season breakout by wideout Parker Washington, but there are real questions here. Do the drop and tight-window issues that plagued Thomas last season reappear? Is there a sustainable plan -- or even a real plan -- for how to use hybrid player Travis Hunter on a weekly basis? Is there an above-average running back or left tackle on the roster? Can Jacksonville be as healthy as it was a season ago, when it was the league's seventh-healthiest team?On top of all that, the Jaguars suffer from a problem that is at least partially self-inflicted: They won't play very many games in front of their home fans. In addition to nine road games this season, the Jags will play two of their eight remaining home games in London, which might more realistically be characterized as a neutral-site contest than a true home game. The Jaguars will play only six games at EverBank Stadium -- amid a reduced capacity as Jacksonville works on its stadium. The Jags will enjoy less home-field advantage than any other team in the league in 2026, and that might help swing a critical call or two in a different direction.Carolina PanthersRecord in 2025: 8-9 (7-3 in games decided by seven points or fewer) Point differential in 2025: minus-69 Projected strength of schedule: 13th toughestAfter years of desperately chasing positive vibes, the Panthers finally landed there at the end of the 2025 season. Though they couldn't get the Week 18 win to clinch a playoff spot themselves, some help from the Falcons helped the Panthers seal a division title on the final day of the season. And though they lost in the wild-card round, they gave the highly touted Rams fits twice in 2026, beating them during the regular season and coming within a drive of repeating the feat in the postseason.The Panthers didn't post a winning season, but 2025 marked their first trip to the playoffs since 2017. There were bright spots on both sides of the football, with homegrown draftees (Tetairoa McMillan and Jaycee Horn) and free agent additions (Mike Jackson and Tre'von Moehrig) all playing at a high level. The front office showed that it believed during the offseason, picking up Bryce Young's fifth-year option and paying a premium to sign the likes of Jaelan Phillips and Devin Lloyd in free agency.I think the Panthers are heading in the right direction. But are they quite as far along as that playoff berth made things seem? I'm not sure. Of course, 8-9 landed the Panthers only into a three-way tie for first place in the NFC South, with Carolina winning the division on a tiebreaker. Consider that the same record led the Bucs to fire many of their assistant coaches and the Falcons to move on from their head coach (Raheem Morris). I'm not suggesting that the Panthers should fire Dave Canales, who has done solid work in his first two years at the helm, but the line between success and failure wasn't very thick in the league's worst division.Advanced metrics also suggest the Panthers weren't the class of the NFC South. FPI pegged the Panthers as the league's 25th-best team at the end of the regular season, which was actually the worst mark for any team in the division; the Bucs (19th), Saints (23rd) and Falcons (24th) all looked better to the algorithm. DVOA also had the Panthers 25th, ahead of only the Saints, who were 28th. Those numbers don't decide divisional races, but they do a good job of telling us how a team was playing on a snap-by-snap basis over a full season.The Panthers went 6-2 in one-score games, including a 30-27 overtime win over the Falcons that probably ended up deciding the NFC South. Again, those games weren't quite as dramatic or narrow as the ones the Bears and Broncos played, but it's difficult to believe that Carolina captured any sort of sustainable lightning in a bottle that will stick around into 2026.Though Carolina did pull off impressive wins against the Rams and on the road against the Packers, those were their only two victories against teams with winning records. Their other six wins included a sweep of the Falcons, a split with the Bucs and one-score wins over the Cowboys, Dolphins and Jets. They won exactly one game by more than one possession, a 30-0 shellacking of the Falcons in Week 3. Carolina is only the 10th playoff team in a nonstrike season in league history to win a mere one game by nine points or more all year.Unfortunately for the Panthers, things get tougher in 2026. Though they faced the league's eighth-easiest schedule a year ago, FPI projects Canales' team to play the 13th-toughest slate this season. Six games against the NFC South cushion any sort of degree of difficulty, but by virtue of finishing first in their division, the Panthers face the Broncos, Eagles and Seahawks this year. The Saints (third easiest), Falcons (11th easiest) and Buccaneers (15th easiest) all project to play easier schedules, and that might be the difference in what could otherwise be a narrow race.Of course, there are reasons to think the Panthers could just be a better team in 2026 than they were in 2025. Unlike the three teams I mentioned above, they didn't ride anything like an unsustainable turnover margin or remarkable run of injuries by opposing quarterbacks to the postseason. It's easier to improve on an eight-win record than it is on a 14-win campaign. They were also the sixth-youngest team on a snap-weighted basis, so there are players on both sides of the ball who could take a leap or hit their peak over the next year or two.If those players aren't available, though, the Panthers might not have the depth to compensate. And though they ranked 21st in adjusted games lost last season, no team has been hit harder by injuries during the preseason than Carolina. The Panthers were already projected to be without former first-round pick Ikem Ekwonu, who tore his patellar tendon in the postseason and won't be ready to start at left tackle for most of 2026, and starting defensive tackle Tershawn Wharton, who underwent neck surgery in May and has no timetable for returning.Things have already gotten much worse. Veteran right tackle Taylor Moton was diagnosed with a blood clot in his lung over the summer and is out indefinitely. Second-year edge rusher Nic Scourton and rookie wide receiver Chris Brazzell II are both out for the year because of knee injuries. Starting running back Chuba Hubbard is sidelined by a hamstring issue.Many of the key contributors who are left also have spotty histories of staying healthy. Horn, the team's top cornerback, has sat out 32 of 85 possible games as a pro. Phillips, who signed a four-year, $120 million contract in free agency, has torn both his Achilles and ACL as a pro. Jonathon Brooks, who is expected to step up in Hubbard's absence, tore his ACL in 2023 (while in college) and then again in 2024 before sitting out all of the 2025 season. If the Panthers can get everyone on the field at the same time, there's a talented roster with real upside here. That next step forward, though, might not come until 2027.New England PatriotsRecord in 2025: 14-3 (7-3 in games decided by seven points or fewer) Point differential in 2025: plus-170 Projected strength of schedule: 10th easiestHave you heard about the Patriots' 2025 schedule? Pats fans might be sick of discussing the topic, and it became ubiquitous as the team made an unexpected run to the Super Bowl. But while the 2025 Patriots earned their way to compete for a Lombardi Trophy, the 2026 team is going to face a much tougher slate of opponents. And that's going to make life much more difficult for Mike Vrabel's team.Let's put last season's Patriots schedule in context and look at what it means for the future. There are a lot of ways to estimate schedule strength. I like to take each of a team's opponents and look at their Pythagorean Expectation after removing the games played against that particular team. In other words, to measure the strength of the Pats' schedule from last season, we would take their Week 1 opponent (the Raiders) and find Vegas' points scored and allowed in every game besides the one against the Patriots, then convert that into a winning percentage.The average Patriots opponent had a .414 Pythagorean Expectation. Unsurprisingly, that was the easiest schedule in the NFL. The next-easiest schedule belonged to the Cowboys, and they were as close to 12th easiest as they were to the Pats. In fact, this was the easiest schedule any team has had in any season by this metric since 2010.Now let's take the 30 easiest schedules for teams by this measure since 1990 and look at what happened the following year. Their strength of schedule increased from 0.431 (the equivalent of a 7.3-win team's point differential) to 0.486 (an 8.3-win opponent). Those teams won an average of 9.3 games (adjusted for a 17-game schedule) during their season with the fatefully easy schedule. The following year, that dropped to 8.0 wins.One obvious comparable would be the 1999 Rams, who stunningly jumped from 4-12 to 13-3 despite losing starting quarterback Trent Green just before the season. Kurt Warner came off the bench and wildly exceeded every possible expectation at quarterback, and that Rams team had added guys like Marshall Faulk to the mix ... but they also faced an incredibly easy schedule. Those Rams faced one team all regular season with a winning record: the 13-3 Titans, whom they would then beat in the Super Bowl.The following year, those same Rams went 10-6 and finished second in the NFC West. Warner sat out five games, which hurt their chances, but their real issue was a defensive collapse. The Rams fell from fourth in scoring defense to dead last. Though the defense played from ahead against one-dimensional offenses that were throwing to catch up for most of the season in 1999, a tougher slate of opponents made life more difficult the following year.The defense looms like an obvious point of concern for the Patriots. Though the Pats were fourth in scoring defense a year ago, there's a lot of air in that ranking. A slow pace and an effective offense meant that the Pats faced just over 10 possessions per game, the sixth fewest in the NFL. Those teams were generally forced to throw with middling quarterbacks by virtue of trailing. As Sheil Kapadia noted, seven of the 14 quarterbacks the Patriots beat in 2025 aren't expected to start in 2026.DVOA, after adjusting for opponent, ranked the Patriots 23rd on defense. The defense got better as the season went along, and the Pats were impacted by the unexpected absence of defensive coordinator Terrell Williams after he was diagnosed with prostate cancer and left the team, but that's an incredibly large gap between the raw stats and the opponent-adjusted play-by-play rate metrics.play1:12Why Dan Orlovsky is pumping the brakes on the PatsAnd though those numbers don't include an excellent showing in the playoffs, I would pin at least some of that on weather that materially affected wins over the Texans and Broncos (the latter starting a backup quarterback). The Seahawks scored only 23 points on offense in the Super Bowl, but Sam Darnold also left at least one touchdown pass on the field with a missed throw, if not more. (If you don't believe me, ask Darnold.)Interim defensive coordinator Zak Kuhr modified the defense as the season went along, dramatically ramping up the team's blitz rate to account for a pass rush that wasn't very strong, especially on the edges. With Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis III at cornerback, New England certainly has the cover corners to hold up in a man-intensive, blitz-heavy scheme, but I'm not sure swapping out K'Lavon Chaisson for Dre'Mont Jones is likely to make a dramatic difference on the edge.The Patriots were also the league's healthiest team in 2025 by adjusted games lost, ranking sixth on offense and fifth on defense. We saw how even one injury could dramatically impact the Pats, when Will Campbell returned from a knee injury late in the year and looked like a totally different player throughout the playoffs and into the Super Bowl, where he allowed a season-high 14 pressures.Though executive vice president of player personnel Eliot Wolf hit on a number of free agent signings and appears to have landed his quarterback of the future in Drake Maye, there's just not a ton of depth behind the starters in New England. The Pats have only one player left on the roster from their 2020 (Mike Onwenu), 2022 (Marcus Jones) and 2024 (Maye) drafts. Their 2021 draft has two survivors in Christian Barmore and Rhamondre Stevenson, and though the 2023 draft delivered a couple of useful late receivers in Kayshon Boutte (traded on Monday) and DeMario Douglas, the only one of the seven top 150 picks from that year still on the roster is Gonzalez.Could the addition of A.J. Brown, a full offseason to work with Kuhr and an MVP-caliber quarterback in Maye help mitigate some of these concerns? In some ways, of course. But I would also argue that the Patriots seem particularly vulnerable to injuries and a tougher slate of opponents. I would expect something in line with the 2000 Rams, but the Patriots have a lower floor than it might seem at first glance."

"Let’s get to the Philadelphia Eagles news and links …Eagles rookie Makai Lemon embraces ‘professional’ mindset in injury return - The AthleticMakai Lemon said he felt a familiar pain. Yes, in his hamstring. Yes, the same hamstring that sidelined him for half of the Philadelphia Eagles’ OTAs. It was a “little tweak,” the rookie wide receiver said, which flared when he attempted to burst, just four days into training camp. The injury caused him to miss two weeks of practices, two preseason games and the competitive parts of two joint practices with the New England Patriots. The repeat injury carried all the frustrating elements of a “here we go again” situation. “It was definitely tough,” Lemon said. “I’m real competitive. Ain’t never want to be away from this game. So, me knowing that it’s the hamstring again, I’m just making sure I take the right precautions. (I’m) learning from it so it doesn’t happen again.” Lemon, who returned to full participation in Monday’s practice, further defined his lesson as “making sure I’m more professional off the field.” He works with the team’s trainers. He adheres to the recovery plan they created for him. He makes sure to warm up properly before taking the field.11 notes from today’s Eagles training camp practice - BGNMAKAI LEMON UPDATE: Lemon was notably working with the starting offense during his first day back. His first target resulted in an incompletion. From my angle, it looked like it may have been a drop. Others thought the throw from Hurts wasn’t on the money and/or timing may have been an issue. Later on, Lemon was utilized on a screen pass. He was also used in pre-snap motion a decent amount.Makai Lemon: “For sure” I’ll be up to speed for Week 1 - PFTEagles wide receiver Makai Lemon returned to practice last week after an extended absence due to a hamstring injury and the rookie is confident that he’ll have enough practice time to be at full speed for the season opener. Lemon said “for sure” to a question about whether there’s enough time for him to feel like himself for the Eagles’ matchup with the Commanders and said all of the mental reps he took while off the field have served to prepare him for the task at hand. The first-round pick’s process will include as much time with quarterback Jalen Hurts as he can get. “Each and every day I feel like that chemistry and that work never stops,” Lemon said. “Each and every day after practice, just talking to him whenever I can. I feel like anytime I can build that chemistry, it’s good.”Eagles 2026 training camp practice notes, Day 15: DeVonta Smith and Makai Lemon return - PhillyVoiceThe Eagles finally showed a look with a fullback today, and it was… (drumroll)… Dallas Goedert. He looked less than enthused to be a lead blocker, and gave Zack Baun sort of a “We’re both vets, let’s not be heroes” kind of a block.PS Game Review – NE 24, PHI 21 - Iggles BlitzGabe Hall had a strong showing. I said last week that he needed to be more physical. Hall did just that. He was able to shed blocks and stuff the RB multiple times. He still showed athleticism, shooting gaps and getting upfield. He drew a holding call. Rookie Zion Wilson started at NT and played a lot. Wilson is at his best when being stout as a run defender. He had a tackle. He also had a good QB pressure when NE forgot to block him. Uar Bernard took a big step forward from last week’s debut. He started slowly and got better as the game went along. He was able to get off blocks and to get to the ball. Bernard made 2 tackles. The light started to come on for him. You can see him figuring things out within the game.Albert Breer Empties His Eagles Notebook From Training Camp - SIThe biggest story in Philly’s camp is what the post-A.J. Brown offense looks like and, more specifically, how quarterback Jalen Hurts looks in it. Let’s start with this: It sounds as if Hurts has a good level of self-awareness of the perception around how the past couple years have gone and seems to be subtly working to fix it, given how intentional he has been about helping to build up relationships in the locker room. And I’ve heard that team-wide, too. It’s a huge part of Nick Sirianni’s belief system anyway, but it does seem as if there’s a concerted effort to create a tighter unit, which shows up on trips like this. For example, the Eagles ran the ball effectively against the Patriots on Wednesday. The Patriots responded Thursday with some borderline shots at Saquon Barkley, and a bunch of guys came to his defense in the moment. So that part of it for Hurts and the Eagles seems to be in a good place. As for the football piece, with new OC Sean Mannion aboard, the Eagles will be under center more and will focus on reviving the run game, which should make things easier on Hurts and the skill guys around him. The flip side: It’s a scheme that demands precision, which will challenge Hurts in different ways.Riq Woolen feels like ‘a rookie again’ with the Eagles. His prove-it year is big for him and the Birds. - InquirerMoments like his plays during Thursday’s joint practice session in New England help the fitting-in part. First, Woolen jumped an A.J. Brown out route near the goal line and picked off Drake Maye for a 100-yard pick-six. Later, he again had tight coverage on Brown and forced the ball free into the air, allowing Jalyx Hunt to make a diving interception. That Woolen’s big day came on the heels of one of his worst days of camp Wednesday was a good sign for him and the Eagles. Woolen may feel like a rookie now, but he is wise enough at 27 to know that a short memory is crucial to playing cornerback in the NFL. The younger version of himself didn’t know how to handle it, he said Monday. “That’s just part of the game and it’s part of being a DB as well,” Woolen said. “One thing may [not] go your way, but you got to be able to rebound and be able to keep playing plays and keep making plays because that’s what the coaches and team expect.”After some dark days, Marcus Epps on verge of becoming a starter again - NBCSP“It would mean everything to me,” Epps said. “I worked real hard to get back to where I’m at. It was a lot of dark days but I still got work to do. I haven’t arrived by any means. It’s a long season and we’re still here just in camp. That’s where my focus is, finishing out camp the right way and continuing to get better.” Epps is 30 now and if he does get named the starter at safety, he’d actually be the Eagles’ oldest starting defensive player this season. It’s clear that Epps brings some stability to the back end of what could be one of the NFL’s best defenses in 2026. After Mukuba got hurt in November last season, Epps filled in admirably next to Reed Blankenship. And after Blankenship left for Houston in free agency, Epps has been getting the first crack at his old job next to Mukuba in the Eagles’ defense. While Fangio has said all summer that there’s a competition for this starting safety job, he clearly became a fan of Epps last year.The Next Generation of NFL Play Callers Is Here - The RingerOne big question for 2026: Can Mannion get Hurts to throw to the middle of the field? Hurts’s aversion to middle-of-the-field throws is well documented, but that isn’t the result of a physical (or mental) inability to throw to that area. We have video evidence that he can do it. But most of those throws come against man coverage, where Hurts can read the leverage his receiver has on a defender and lead his guy to a spot. The no-throws come against zone coverage, where Hurts is forced to make anticipatory throws before his receiver arrives in a certain window. If Mannion is the “evil genius” Eagles lineman Jordan Mailata says he is, the rookie play caller should be able to force opposing defenses into man coverage and scheme up plays that pry open zone windows over the middle. This offense doesn’t really work without those throws, and the best coaches in the “Piss Boys” tree have helped lesser quarterbacks make them with regularity.5 key storylines from Week 2 of NFL preseason: Browns’ QB decision, Falcons’ QB battle to heat up - NFL.comTanner McKee has clearly outplayed Andy Dalton in Philadelphia. For the second straight week, Dalton took preseason snaps ahead of McKee but struggled mightily. This one isn’t very close from what we’ve seen. If the Eagles were hoping to flip Dalton for something in a trade after the preseason, his play is likely scaring off any partners.Spadaro: Savor the moment before the Eagles’ offense takes flight - PhiladelphiaEagles.comSeptember 13 is so close – we can taste the regular season, the excitement, the energy, the passion. And yet it is, in reality for a football team, so far away in that there is a ton of other stuff to accomplish hour by hour, day by day. So, it is here that we are hearing Offensive Coordinator Sean Mannion hold a press conference on Monday at the Jefferson Health Training Complex, answering questions on the “right-now” topics – roster battles, what he has seen in the two preseason games, etc. – and holding off, understandably, on the big-picture questions about the Eagles’ scheme and what he envisions for the coming regular season. Specifically, Mannion is asked about pass protection and the mechanism for making sure everyone is on the same page and how the fullback position might impact the offense in 2026. “You know what,” Mannion said, “I guess we’ll have to wait and see. I don’t want to reveal too much. But, you know, certainly position versatility, alignment, flexibility – those are things we place a premium on. You know, so it’s – I guess, again, I apologize for not answering the question, but I don’t want to reveal too much. But those are things that are very valuable to us as an offense and that we challenge our guys to do across all our position groups.”Arizona Cardinals activate Josh Sweat among flurry of moves on Monday - Revenge Of The BirdsThe Arizona Cardinals made moves on Monday ahead of their joint practices with the Green Bay Packers and their final game of the preseason. From the team: “The Arizona Cardinals Football Club today announced that the team has activated linebacker Josh Sweat from the Physically Unable to Perform list (PUP).“From NFL to LSU Dae’Quan Wright commits to the Tigers - And The Valley ShookIt’s never a quiet day around Baton Rouge and LSU, and that has proven to be the case today. NFL TE Dae’Quan Wright, who played for Lane Kiffin at Ole Miss, has officially committed to LSU after being cut by the Cleveland Browns. Yes, you read that correctly. That one sentence has so many different layers to it. First, Lane Kiffin and LSU have just become the first college team to receive a commitment from a former NFL player for the upcoming season. Second, a player who was deemed ineligible a month ago has now been able to find a path to regain his eligibility. If Wright clears waivers, he could be in Baton Rouge in time to prepare for LSU’s Week 1 kickoff against Clemson. Yes, LSU is waiting for a player to clear NFL waivers before it can work through another hurdle to get him on campus.Dallas camp standouts are in: Meet the two 2026 camp MVPs - Blogging The Boys61 votes were cast in total for 28 different players, and only two players were unanimous picks: Shavon Revel and Rashan Gary tied with five votes apiece, but they got there in different ways. Revel was named among the primary standouts by all five sources, while Gary appeared on three primary lists and received honorable mentions from two others.Mark Tyler’s Washington Commanders 53-man roster projection - Hogs HavenI do not think this one is over. [Former Eagle] Julian Good-Jones is only on here until Peters can either swing a trade for a veteran center, sign a free agent or claim one who is released on cut-down day. I’m not at all comfortable with either Trent Scott or Andrew Wylie coming into the game should something happen to Brandon Coleman or Josh Conerly, so I’d have a close eye on cuts at tackle too.NY Giants’ WR Malik Nabers sheds the red jersey, takes step toward Week 1 - Big Blue ViewAfter wide receiver Malik Nabers took another step forward on Monday in his recovery from a torn ACL, New York Giants head coach John Harbaugh said it is “reasonable” to think Nabers has a chance to play in the Giants’ Sept. 13 season-opener against the Dallas Cowboys. In a shells practice with little contact, Nabers was on the field participating in team drills without a red, non-contact jersey for the first time. Unofficially, Nabers took 13 reps, some in 11-on-11 and some in 7-on-7. He caught six passes from Jaxson Dart, Jameis Winston, and Brandon Allen. Nabers’ best catch was a diving play on a comeback route from Allen in front of cornerback Art Green. Nabers was barely touched during any of his 13 reps. Harbaugh stopped short of predicting that Nabers would be ready for Week 1.Predicting NFL teams most likely to improve in 2026 season - ESPNThe Giants did not have Super Bowl aspirations heading into 2025. The goal was a competitive season in what looked to be a make-or-break year for Brian Daboll after the Giants went 3-14 in 2024. There were positive signs from their rookie class, but the Giants improved by only one game -- and even that required a two-game winning streak to finish the season. I’d argue that the Giants quietly had a more competitive season, even if Daboll wasn’t around to see the end of it. Yes, New York finished 4-13, but its Pythagorean expectation suggests that Big Blue performed at a 7.1 win rate. Accounting for the 17-game schedule, the Giants are one of only 13 teams since 1990 to finish three-plus wins short of their expected win total by point differential, joining last season’s Chiefs on that list. Even if we expand the sample to include teams with a 2½-win gap, we’re still looking at just 23 teams between 1990 and 2025. Those teams improved by an average of three wins per 17 games the following season. Teams that underperform their point differential typically play up to that level with another shot the following year. Coming up short of the point differential also usually comes with a subpar record in one-score games, and the Giants were 1-6 in those contests a year ago, with their lone victory coming against the Chargers in Week 4. Some games can appear closer than reality, with a late score in garbage time bringing a losing team within one touchdown. But the 2025 Giants suffered some painful losses against winning teams in contests they had a real shot at winning.Jed York reportedly responded to an ad on a known prostitution site - Niners NationSan Francisco 49ers owner Jed York was arrested in East Palestine, Ohio, over the weekend and found guilty of two misdemeanor charges. According to WKBN News, York pleaded no contest Monday morning to misdemeanor charges of disorderly conduct and possessing criminal tools. He was arrested sometime Sunday in East Palestine before posting a $5,000 bond.Deshaun Watson is the Browns starting QB, for worse and for worse - SB NationNobody is more gifted at making Browns fans unhappy than the Cleveland Browns. The team announced Deshaun Watson as their starting quarterback on Monday, less than 48 hours after he was booed off the field in preseason and subsequently went on a “poor me” rant to the media about how the fans are unfair to him. In any normal organization an adult would step in and say “we can’t start Deshaun,” but we know the Browns aren’t normal.…Social Media Information:BGN Manager: Follow Brandon Lee Gowton on Twitter | BlueSky | ThreadsBGN Radio Twitter: Follow @BGN_RadioThe Feed post of the dayEach day, we highlight a BGN community post here in this space. Head over to The Feed to submit your entry and have a chance to be featured in The Linc!No Preseason Trades YetHowie has made at least 1 trade every preseason for the last 10 years (I am not counting the 2020 pandemic offseason) I can't imagine he will make it another week. There are some obvious positions for which he would likely want to bolster (S, TE, QB?) But I wouldn't be at all surprised if he trades for a stacked position such as LB or DT, or trades a player for a future day 3 pick. I also won't be surprised if he makes a waiver claim or 2 next Monday. Last 10 years:Rec 4CommentsThin Stroke Comment Icon BubbleReplyRead 7 repliesALSO: here’s a bonus post from the new NFC East Mixtape feed!Which NFC East player will rush for the most yards this season? How many yards? Will that same player also have total all purpose utility yards (rushing, receiving, returning combined), if not who will split the two titles rushing yardage and all purpose yardage and for which NFC East team?The rushing attack is making a comeback in the NFL recently, and the northeast is a place where it is an important part of game control and winning. Who will lead the NFC East in rushing yards, and all purpose yardage. Will it be Saquon, Croskey-Merrit, Skattabo, Tracy, Singletary, Harris, Williams, Blue, Hurts, Dart, Bigsby, Daniels, who?Rec 3CommentsThin Stroke Comment Icon BubbleReplyRead 2 replies"