Glossary
Fantasy, DFS, and sports betting stat definitions built for citation.
Reference concise methodology, example tables, caveats, and related concepts for the metrics analysts use when comparing NFL players, teams, markets, and model outputs.
10 concepts indexed across 3 sections.
Player volume & opportunity
Receiving share, downfield share, red-zone touches, role changes.
Receiving Volume
3 FAQsTarget Share
Target share is the percentage of a team pass attempts directed to one receiver, tight end, or running back. It is a volume metric, not an efficiency metric, and is most useful when paired with route participation, air yards, and team pass rate.
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Downfield Opportunity
3 FAQsAir Yards
Air yards measure how far a pass travels past the line of scrimmage toward the targeted receiver, whether the pass is completed or not. The metric captures downfield opportunity before catch-point and yards-after-catch outcomes are known.
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Scoring Opportunity
3 FAQsRed-Zone Usage
Red-zone usage tracks player opportunities inside the opponent 20-yard line, usually separated into carries, targets, routes, and snaps. It is a high-leverage opportunity metric because touchdowns are more likely near the goal line.
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Role Changes
3 FAQsInjury Opportunity
Injury opportunity analysis estimates the touches, targets, snaps, routes, and high-value roles that may become available when a player is limited or inactive. The key is identifying where opportunity can flow, not assuming every replacement inherits the full role.
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Team context & tendencies
Pace, pass-rate-over-expected, defensive matchup grades.
Matchup Context
3 FAQsFantasy Points Allowed by Position
Fantasy points allowed by position shows how many fantasy points a defense has allowed to quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, tight ends, or kickers. It is a matchup descriptor, not a complete matchup projection.
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Play Volume
3 FAQsPace
Pace describes how quickly an offense runs plays and how many total plays a game environment can create. Common views include seconds per snap, plays per game, and neutral-script pace.
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Team Tendency
3 FAQsPass Rate Over Expected
Pass rate over expected, shortened to PROE, compares a team’s pass rate with the rate an average team would be expected to post in the same game situations. It helps separate real coaching tendency from score and down-distance context.
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Process, models & markets
Closing line value, model calibration, DFS tournament leverage.
Betting Process
3 FAQsClosing Line Value
Closing line value, or CLV, compares the price or spread you bet to the final market price before the event starts. Beating the close can indicate that your number was better than the later market consensus, but it does not guarantee any single bet will win.
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Prediction Quality
3 FAQsModel Calibration
Model calibration measures whether predicted probabilities match observed frequencies. If a model assigns 60 percent probability to many events, those events should occur about 60 percent of the time in a well-calibrated sample.
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Tournament Strategy
3 FAQsDFS Ownership Leverage
DFS ownership leverage compares a player or lineup exposure to the field expectation. A leveraged play is not simply low-owned; it is a play where the potential payoff, correlation, or projection gap may justify being above or below expected field ownership.
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