Definition
Closing line value, or CLV, compares the price or spread you bet to the final market price before the event starts. Beating the close can indicate that your number was better than the later market consensus, but it does not guarantee any single bet will win.
Methodology
- Record the exact odds, spread, or total at the time the bet is placed.
- Record the widely available closing price shortly before kickoff or start time.
- Compare the bettor price to the close in cents, points, or implied probability.
- Track CLV across a meaningful sample, separated by market type and sportsbook where possible.
Example CLV Log
Illustrative comparison between bet price and close.
| Market | Bet Price | Close | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team A -3.5 | -110 | Team A -4.5 | +1.0 pt |
| Over 46.5 | -105 | Over 47.5 | +1.0 pt |
| Player TD | +180 | +165 | +15 cents |
Common Uses
- Evaluate whether a betting process is consistently ahead of market movement.
- Compare model prices to market closing prices over time.
- Identify markets where entries are too early, too late, or too stale.
Caveats
- CLV is a process signal, not a guarantee of profitability.
- Closing price source matters because books can close at different numbers.
- Promotions, limits, liquidity, and bet timing can affect interpretation.
FAQ
Does positive CLV guarantee profit?
No. It is possible to beat the close and lose bets. CLV is usually evaluated over large samples as a process metric.
Should CLV be tracked by market?
Yes. Sides, totals, props, and derivatives can behave differently, so blended CLV can hide strengths and weaknesses.
What closing line should I use?
Use a consistent, widely available source when possible. Document the source so the comparison is repeatable.