Definition
Air yards measure how far a pass travels past the line of scrimmage toward the targeted receiver, whether the pass is completed or not. The metric captures downfield opportunity before catch-point and yards-after-catch outcomes are known.
Methodology
- Record the line of scrimmage and target location for each pass attempt.
- Calculate the vertical distance from the line of scrimmage to the target point.
- Sum player air yards across the sample, including incomplete targets.
- For air-yards share, divide player air yards by team air yards.
Example Air Yards Profile
Illustrative downfield usage for three receivers.
| Player | Targets | Air Yards | aDOT | Team Air-Yards Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR A | 24 | 312 | 13.0 | 37% |
| WR B | 27 | 176 | 6.5 | 21% |
| TE A | 17 | 118 | 6.9 | 14% |
Common Uses
- Spot receivers earning high-value downfield targets.
- Compare opportunity quality behind similar target totals.
- Find volatile DFS profiles where ceiling is driven by deep attempts.
Caveats
- Air yards do not guarantee completions or fantasy production.
- Low-aDOT players can still be valuable through target volume and yards after catch.
- Weather, quarterback injury, and opponent coverage can change weekly depth of target.
FAQ
Are air yards predictive?
Air yards can help describe opportunity quality, especially for receivers, but they should be combined with target share, route rate, quarterback efficiency, and matchup context.
What is aDOT?
aDOT means average depth of target. It is player air yards divided by targets.
Why include incomplete targets?
Incomplete targets still represent intended opportunity. Including them helps distinguish role from box-score results.