Definition
Pass rate over expected, often shortened to PROE, compares how often a team passes to how often an average team would be expected to pass in the same game situations. It helps separate real coaching tendency from score and down-distance context.
Methodology
- Build or use a baseline model that estimates pass probability by down, distance, yard line, time, score, and other context.
- Compare each actual play call to that expected pass probability.
- Average the differences across plays to calculate team or game-level PROE.
- Review neutral-script samples when projecting future passing volume.
Example PROE View
Illustrative team play-calling tendency over a four-game sample.
| Team | Actual Pass Rate | Expected Pass Rate | PROE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team A | 63.4% | 57.1% | +6.3% |
| Team B | 51.8% | 55.6% | -3.8% |
| Team C | 58.9% | 58.2% | +0.7% |
Common Uses
- Identify teams that are pass-heavy or run-heavy after adjusting for context.
- Improve player volume projections for quarterbacks and receivers.
- Compare coaching tendencies across changing game scripts.
Caveats
- Different models can produce slightly different expected pass rates.
- Quarterback injuries and offensive line changes can shift tendencies quickly.
- PROE describes play-calling preference, not passing efficiency.
FAQ
Why not just use pass rate?
Raw pass rate is heavily influenced by score and game script. PROE adjusts for those conditions before judging tendency.
Is positive PROE always good for fantasy?
It can support more passing volume, but fantasy value still depends on target distribution, efficiency, touchdowns, and salary or market price.
Can PROE change during a season?
Yes. Personnel, quarterback health, opponent, and coaching changes can all move play-calling tendencies.