Blog and learning

Bankroll & process · 2026-05-18

MLB First 5 Innings Bets: Where the Sharper Edge Lives

MLB first 5 innings betting explained: F5 spreads, totals, and why removing bullpen variance gives sharps a more predictable market to attack.

Updated 2026-06-10

Player Props · 2026-05-16

MLB Platoon-Split Prop Modeling 2026: When the Lefty-Righty Edge Survives the Bullpen

How to weight platoon splits in MLB hitter prop models — when the starter L/R edge survives the bullpen, and the Baseball Savant features that drive it.

Updated 2026-06-10

Bankroll · 2026-05-15

CLV Variance by Market: NFL Sides vs MLB Props vs UFC

CLV variance differs by market: the sample needed to trust a CLV read varies by sport and market type. Per-market thresholds and sample-size tables.

NBA, MLB, NHL, UFC · 2026-04-23

MLB Umpire Strike Zone Trends: A Hidden Total-Mover

MLB umpire trends quietly shift game totals. Learn which umpires call bigger zones, how to read umpire stats, and where the betting edge actually lives.

Updated 2026-06-10

NFL Props · 2026-04-09

MLB Batted Ball to NFL YAC: Cross-Sport Prop Modeling Transfers

How analytical frameworks from MLB batted-ball modeling translate to NFL yards-after-catch prop betting.

Bankroll & process · 2026-02-19

MLB Park Factors: Why Coors Field and Camden Yards Eat Totals

MLB park factors explained: how Coors Field, Camden Yards, and other extreme parks distort totals and where the park factor adjustment lives.

Updated 2026-06-10

Bankroll & process · 2026-02-05

MLB Starting Pitcher Impact: How Aces Move the Total

MLB starting pitcher betting: how SP matchups move totals and moneylines, why ace pitcher line moves are real, and where the market overreacts.

Updated 2026-06-10

Betting basics · 2026-01-29

MLB Run Lines Explained: The -1.5 Spread Strategy

How the MLB run line works, when -1.5 favorites are worth the price, and the run line strategy patterns that beat the closing number.

Updated 2026-06-10