TB at DAL

a short turnaround degrades practice time and execution regardless of which team has the smaller relative edge; when both sides are equally short-rested there is no differential to exploit but there is a real absolute effect on combined scoring

under side 50% on 124 graded games

Primetime attention can overprice favorites, leaving value on the underdog.

away side 54% on 434 graded games

a short turnaround degrades practice time and execution regardless of which team has the smaller relative edge; when both sides are equally short-rested there is no differential to exploit but there is a real absolute effect on combined scoring

under side 50% on 124 graded games

Primetime broadcasts skew toward conservative game plans and public over-money inflates the total, so the under carries a live edge.

under side 55% on 434 graded games

Primetime broadcasts skew toward conservative game plans and public over-money inflates the total, so the under carries a live edge.

under side 55% on 434 graded games

A closing spread a half point off a key number hands the underdog side extra backdoor- cover value that a spread sitting exactly on the key number does not.

away side 52% on 781 graded games

A team on an extended ATS streak (either direction) is due for mean reversion; the streak itself carries no forward-looking edge once it reaches a genuine length.

away side 51% on 847 graded games

A closing spread a half point off a key number hands the underdog side extra backdoor- cover value that a spread sitting exactly on the key number does not.

away side 52% on 781 graded games

Primetime attention can overprice favorites, leaving value on the underdog.

away side 54% on 434 graded games

A team on an extended ATS streak (either direction) is due for mean reversion; the streak itself carries no forward-looking edge once it reaches a genuine length.

away side 51% on 847 graded games

A closing spread a half point off a key number hands the underdog side extra backdoor- cover value that a spread sitting exactly on the key number does not.

away side 52% on 781 graded games

Primetime broadcasts skew toward conservative game plans and public over-money inflates the total, so the under carries a live edge.

under side 55% on 434 graded games

a short turnaround degrades practice time and execution regardless of which team has the smaller relative edge; when both sides are equally short-rested there is no differential to exploit but there is a real absolute effect on combined scoring

under side 50% on 124 graded games