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NFL MATCHUP DESK

PHI at JAX

NFL 2026 · Week 5 · 2026-10-11 · 09:30

Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

PHI @ JAX on the wire

Pulled Oct 9, 12:27 p.m. UTC

What moved

  • Spread JAX -7.5opened -2.5, -5
  • Total 42opened 44, -2
  • Books 11betus moved most
  • Kickoff Sunday, Oct 11, 9:30 a.m.

Lenses that fire

  • A team on an extended ATS streak (either direction) is due for mean reversion; the streak itself carries no forward-looking edge once it reaches a genuine length.

    away side 51% on 849 graded games

  • A closing spread a half point off a key number hands the underdog side extra backdoor- cover value that a spread sitting exactly on the key number does not.

    away side 53% on 783 graded games

  • A team on an extended ATS streak (either direction) is due for mean reversion; the streak itself carries no forward-looking edge once it reaches a genuine length.

    away side 51% on 849 graded games

Angles

  • Line moved toward
  • Total moved down
  • A lens fires here

MARKET

Open and now by book

odds_snapshots · n = 1000 rows · as of 2026-08-26T04:45:08.55+00:00

betus

Open PHI favored by 1.5 Home -105 · Away -115 Moneyline PHI — · JAX — Total 44.5 · Over -110 · Under -110
Now PHI favored by 1.5 Home -105 · Away -115 Moneyline PHI — · JAX — Total 44.5 · Over -110 · Under -110

NFL key 3: 1.5 points away

n = 334 rows · as of 2026-08-26T04:45:08.55+00:00

draftkings

Open PHI favored by 1.5 Home -110 · Away -110 Moneyline PHI — · JAX — Total 45.5 · Over -110 · Under -110
Now PHI favored by 1.5 Home -110 · Away -110 Moneyline PHI — · JAX — Total 45.5 · Over -110 · Under -110

NFL key 3: 1.5 points away

n = 333 rows · as of 2026-08-26T04:30:15.742+00:00

fanduel

Open PHI favored by 1.5 Home -112 · Away -108 Moneyline PHI — · JAX — Total 44.5 · Over -102 · Under -120
Now PHI favored by 1.5 Home -112 · Away -108 Moneyline PHI — · JAX — Total 44.5 · Over -102 · Under -120

NFL key 3: 1.5 points away

n = 333 rows · as of 2026-08-26T04:30:15.742+00:00

HOUSE

Published play

under

Market
receptions
Line
3.5
American odds
-106
Model
Model name unavailable
Confidence
62.6%

picks · n = 1 selected row · release unversioned · as of 2026-10-08T12:55:31.770903+00:00

CONTEXT

Lens takes

No data

No lens takes

No lens has a take on this game. Takes are written each hour before kickoff.

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Weather

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Injuries

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Roundtable

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