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CURRENT
▲-1.5 → -2.5 (-1) over 24 captures CLE @ NYJ NYJ -1.5 → -2.5 · DraftKings — open CLE @ NYJ matchup▲-3.5 → -3 (+0.5) over 24 captures BAL @ ATL ATL -3.5 → -3 · DraftKings — open BAL @ ATL matchup▲-7 → -7.5 (-0.5) over 24 captures PHI @ JAX JAX -7 → -7.5 · DraftKings — open PHI @ JAX matchup◆ CLE @ NYJ NYJ 16% tix / 27% $ — reverse line move — open CLE @ NYJ matchup◆ BUF @ LA LA 28% tix / 40% $ — money side — open BUF @ LA matchup■ house House record, last 10: 8–2 · NFL ATS, last 90 days: 66.7% (n=30, 95% CI 48.8–80.8%) · Early sample · 30 of 50 plays · 4d ago — open the house record

NFL MATCHUP DESK

MIN at NO

NFL 2026 · Week 5 · 2026-10-11 · 13:00

Caesars Superdome

MIN @ NO on the wire

Pulled Oct 9, 12:27 p.m. UTC

What moved

  • Spread NO 2.5opened 1.5, +1
  • Total 42opened 44.5, -2.5
  • Books 11betonlineag moved most
  • Kickoff Sunday, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m.

Lenses that fire

  • A closing spread a half point off a key number hands the underdog side extra backdoor- cover value that a spread sitting exactly on the key number does not.

    home side 53% on 783 graded games

  • A team on an extended ATS streak (either direction) is due for mean reversion; the streak itself carries no forward-looking edge once it reaches a genuine length.

    home side 51% on 849 graded games

  • A team on an extended ATS streak (either direction) is due for mean reversion; the streak itself carries no forward-looking edge once it reaches a genuine length.

    home side 51% on 849 graded games

Angles

  • Line moved away
  • Total moved down
  • A lens fires here

MARKET

Open and now by book

odds_snapshots · n = 1000 rows · as of 2026-08-28T04:30:00+00:00

betus

Open MIN favored by 1.5 Home -115 · Away -105 Moneyline MIN — · NO — Total 44.5 · Over -110 · Under -110
Now MIN favored by 1.5 Home -115 · Away -105 Moneyline MIN — · NO — Total 44.5 · Over -110 · Under -110

NFL key 3: 1.5 points away

n = 500 rows · as of 2026-08-28T04:30:00+00:00

draftkings

Open MIN favored by 1.5 Home -110 · Away -110 Moneyline MIN — · NO — Total 44.5 · Over -110 · Under -110
Now MIN favored by 1.5 Home -110 · Away -110 Moneyline MIN — · NO — Total 44.5 · Over -110 · Under -110

NFL key 3: 1.5 points away

n = 500 rows · as of 2026-08-28T04:30:00+00:00

HOUSE

Published play

under

Market
receptions
Line
3.5
American odds
-128
Model
Model name unavailable
Confidence
62.6%

picks · n = 1 selected row · release unversioned · as of 2026-10-09T12:55:29.955179+00:00

CONTEXT

Lens takes

No data

No lens takes

No lens has a take on this game. Takes are written each hour before kickoff.

No data

Weather

No weather rail is connected to this matchup page.

No data

Injuries

No injuries rail is connected to this matchup page.

No data

Roundtable

No roundtable rail is connected to this matchup page.