CURRENT

▲ ATL @ GB spread -6 → -5.5 ◆ ATL @ GB ATL 49% tix / 59% $ — reverse line move ■ house House backtest last 10: 6–4 · 90-day all-market 54.8% (n=8726)● Wire Woman says she reported alleged 49ers impersonator to team in December · 6h ago● Wire Source: Niners signing veteran receiver Cooks to practice squad · 8h ago● Wire Kimes on Packers' latest O-line injury: 'It completely changes their identity' · 10h ago

▲ ATL @ GB spread -6 → -5.5 ◆ ATL @ GB ATL 49% tix / 59% $ — reverse line move ■ house House backtest last 10: 6–4 · 90-day all-market 54.8% (n=8726)● Wire Woman says she reported alleged 49ers impersonator to team in December · 6h ago● Wire Source: Niners signing veteran receiver Cooks to practice squad · 8h ago● Wire Kimes on Packers' latest O-line injury: 'It completely changes their identity' · 10h ago

model · v1.0.0

NFL Win Probability to Margin Translation

Walk-forward-safe isotonic recalibration followed by a nearest-neighbor empirical NFL margin distribution, cover/push probabilities, and two-sided spread EV.

Contract

Input:: Frame
Output:: Frame
Determinism:: pure
Side effects:: none
Leakage window:: 0s

Params (live form)

Minimum training rows Minimum number of earlier completed nfl_schedules games required before translation. Defaults to 200. Empirical neighborhood rows Nearest calibrated-probability training games used for the integer margin distribution. Defaults to 400.

JSON

{}

Citations

https://github.com/greerreNFL/nfelotranslation