Angles · look-through
Short Week Fade
as of Oct 18, 6:25 PM ET
hit rate (all)
Ready33.3%
n=3
as of Oct 18
trailing 300
Ready33.3%
n=3
as of Oct 18
best market
Readyspread
33.3% · n=3
as of Oct 18
weeks 1-9
Ready0.0%
n=1
as of Oct 18
weeks 10-18
Ready50.0%
n=2
as of Oct 18
playoffs
—
n=0
as of Oct 18
Angle card · what every angle carries
“Short Week Fade”
The tell
spread
Fires tonight on 0 games.
Blind spot
spread (33.3% · n=3).
Famous call: WAS @ PIT — spread (45.6%, hit).
Rolling hit rate needs 100 graded claims — not there yet.
- Graded claims
- 3
- Hit · Brier
- 33.3% · 0.237
- Lift vs break-even
- -19.1 pts
- CLV when followed
- —
- By regime
- early 0.0% · late 50.0% · playoffs —
- Drift (trailing 300)
- — (needs 300 graded)
- Rating
- Not rated yet
- Used in other angles
- None yet
Counts differ by cohort: the tiles above use decided claims (wins and losses) in each window, while Graded claims counts every graded ledger row, pushes included. Lift here is measured against the −110 break-even; the card on /lenses measures it against the other lenses.
Record by part of the season
| Weeks | Hit rate | Games |
|---|---|---|
| 1-9 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 10-18 | 50.0% | 2 |
| playoffs | — | 0 |
Calibration
dot size = n; dashed = perfect calibration · n=3 · as of Oct 18, 6:25 PM ET
Tells it reads
- spread
Last graded calls
| Game | Call | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL @ CIN | spread | 45.6% | miss |
| WAS @ PIT | spread | 45.6% | hit |
| HOU @ TEN | spread | 45.6% | miss |
Scoreboard
Not enough graded games yet.
Last 300 games
Not enough graded games yet.
This season
Not enough graded games yet.
Reliability
Brier / ECE per window, read off the scoreboard's own rows — the confidence-vs-observed curve above (from the hourly update) is a separate reading.
Record by conditions
Not enough graded games to compare conditions yet (Last 300 games).
Recent calls
| Game | Market / side | Percentile | Details | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA @ SEA | spread · home | 100% | restDaysAway | pending |
| GB @ CHI | spread · home | 100% | restDaysAway | pending |
| BUF @ DEN | spread · away | 100% | restDaysHome | pending |
| DAL @ CIN | spread · home | 100% | restDaysAway | loss |
| WAS @ PIT | spread · away | 100% | restDaysHome | win |
| HOU @ TEN | spread · away | 100% | restDaysHome | loss |