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Sharp

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as of Oct 18, 6:25 PM ET

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Saying tonight

TB @ CAR · Sharp: the line moved from TB by 1.5 at open to CAR by 3 now; the market moved toward CAR. (53.6%)
NYG @ HOU · Sharp: the line moved from HOU by 5.5 at open to HOU by 7 now; the market moved toward HOU. (50.9%)
MIA @ NYJ · Sharp: the line moved from NYJ by 2.5 at open to NYJ by 4.5 now; the market moved toward NYJ. (51.7%)
IND @ MIN · Sharp: the line moved from MIN by 2.5 at open to MIN by 5.5 now; the market moved toward MIN. (52.7%)
GB @ DET · Sharp: the line moved from DET by 2.5 at open to DET by 3 now; the market moved toward DET. (47.8%)
DEN @ ARI · Sharp: the line moved from DEN by 4.5 at open to DEN by 5.5 now; the market moved toward DEN. (49.7%)
CLE @ TEN · Sharp: the line moved from TEN by 2.5 at open to CLE by 1.5 now; the market moved toward CLE. (53.3%)
WAS @ SF · Sharp: the line moved from SF by 5.5 at open to SF by 7.5 now; the market moved toward SF. (51.7%)
DAL @ GB · Sharp: the line moved from GB by 3 at open to GB by 1.5 now; the market moved toward DAL. (50.9%)

38.5%

n=13

as of Oct 18

38.5%

n=13

as of Oct 18

line-value

38.5% · n=13

as of Oct 18

38.5%

n=13

as of Oct 18

—

n=0

as of Oct 18

—

n=0

as of Oct 18

Angle card · what every angle carries

“Line value, key numbers (3/7), CLV and market moves.”

The tell

line-value

Fires tonight on 9 games.

Blind spot

line-value (38.5% · n=13).

Famous call: DEN @ LAC — line-value (54.0%, hit).

Look through it Remix

Rolling hit rate needs 100 graded claims — not there yet.

Graded claims: 13 Includes 1 past game replayed from pre-kickoff lines.
Hit · Brier: 38.5% · 0.265
Lift vs break-even: -13.9 pts
CLV when followed: —
By regime: early 38.5% · late — · playoffs —
Drift (trailing 300): — (needs 300 graded)
Rating: Not rated yet
Used in other angles: None yet

Counts differ by cohort: the tiles above use decided claims (wins and losses) in each window, while Graded claims counts every graded ledger row, pushes included. Lift here is measured against the −110 break-even; the card on /lenses measures it against the other lenses.

Record by part of the season

Weeks	Hit rate	Games
1-9	38.5%	13
10-18	—	0
playoffs	—	0

Calibration

dot size = n; dashed = perfect calibration · n=13 · as of Oct 18, 6:25 PM ET

Tells it reads

line-value

Last graded calls

Game	Call	Confidence	Result
IND @ PIT	line-value	47.8%	hit
DEN @ LAC	line-value	54.0%	hit
CLE @ NYJ	line-value	50.9%	hit
SEA @ DEN	line-value	47.8%	miss
PHI @ JAX	line-value	54.6%	miss
NYG @ WAS	line-value	51.7%	miss
MIN @ NO	line-value	49.7%	hit
LV @ NE	line-value	53.7%	miss
HOU @ TEN	line-value	52.7%	hit
DET @ ARI	line-value	53.3%	miss

Scoreboard

Not enough graded games yet.

Last 300 games

Not enough graded games yet.

This season

Not enough graded games yet.

Reliability

Brier / ECE per window, read off the scoreboard's own rows — the confidence-vs-observed curve above (from the hourly update) is a separate reading.

— not enough graded games yet

Last 300 games — not enough graded games yet

This season — not enough graded games yet

Record by conditions

Not enough graded games to compare conditions yet (Last 300 games).

Recent calls

Game	Market / side	Result
LAC @ SEA	spread · home	push
MIA @ MIN	spread · home	loss
JAX @ CIN	spread · home	loss
NYJ @ CHI	spread · home	win
NE @ BUF	spread · home	loss
TEN @ BAL	spread · home	loss
GB @ TB	spread · away	push
LA @ PHI	spread · away	win
ARI @ NYG	spread · home	win
DAL @ HOU	spread · home	loss