Angles · look-through
Rest Edge
as of Oct 18, 6:25 PM ET
hit rate (all)
Ready50.8%
n=423
as of Oct 18
trailing 300
Ready52.0%
n=300
as of Oct 18
best market
Readyspread
50.8% · n=423
as of Oct 18
weeks 1-9
Ready51.9%
n=185
as of Oct 18
weeks 10-18
Ready50.0%
n=222
as of Oct 18
playoffs
Ready50.0%
n=16
as of Oct 18
Angle card · what every angle carries
“Rest Edge”
The tell
spread
Fires tonight on 0 games.
Blind spot
spread (50.8% · n=423).
Famous call: IND @ PIT — spread (51.1%, hit).
- Graded claims
- 429
- Hit · Brier
- 51.0% · 0.250
- Lift vs break-even
- -1.4 pts
- CLV when followed
- +0.1
- By regime
- early 51.9% · late 50.0% · playoffs 50.0%
- Drift (trailing 300)
- stable
- Rating
- Not rated yet
- Used in other angles
- None yet
Counts differ by cohort: the tiles above use decided claims (wins and losses) in each window, while Graded claims counts every graded ledger row, pushes included. Lift here is measured against the −110 break-even; the card on /lenses measures it against the other lenses.
Record by part of the season
| Weeks | Hit rate | Games |
|---|---|---|
| 1-9 | 51.9% | 185 |
| 10-18 | 50.0% | 222 |
| playoffs | 50.0% | 16 |
Calibration
dot size = n; dashed = perfect calibration · n=423 · as of Oct 18, 6:25 PM ET
Tells it reads
- spread
Last graded calls
| Game | Call | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT @ TB | spread | 51.1% | miss |
| CAR @ PHI | spread | 51.1% | hit |
| IND @ PIT | spread | 51.1% | hit |
| CLE @ NYJ | spread | 51.1% | miss |
| ATL @ NO | spread | 50.9% | hit |
| LAC @ BUF | spread | 50.6% | hit |
| SEA @ ARI | spread | 50.2% | hit |
| NYG @ LA | spread | 50.5% | hit |
| MIA @ SF | spread | 50.2% | hit |
| SF @ SEA | spread | 50.2% | hit |
Scoreboard
51.1%
n=435 · #6 of 7 ranked
Last 300 games
53.1%
n=300 · #4 of 7 ranked
This season
Not enough graded games yet.
Reliability
Brier / ECE per window, read off the scoreboard's own rows — the confidence-vs-observed curve above (from the hourly update) is a separate reading.
Record by conditions
Not enough graded games to compare conditions yet (Last 300 games).
Recent calls
| Game | Market / side | Percentile | Details |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA @ NYJ | spread · away | 100% | restEdgeDays |
| KC @ SEA | spread · home | 100% | restEdgeDays |
| MIA @ NYJ | spread · away | 100% | restEdgeDays |
| KC @ SEA | spread · home | 100% | restEdgeDays |
| GB @ DET | spread · home | 100% | restEdgeDays |
| CIN @ BAL | spread · away | 100% | restEdgeDays |
| IND @ MIN | spread · home | 100% | restEdgeDays |
| DEN @ ARI | spread · away | 100% | restEdgeDays |
| CIN @ BAL | spread · away | 100% | restEdgeDays |
| DEN @ ARI | spread · away | 100% | restEdgeDays |