Angles · look-through
Public Fade
as of Oct 18, 6:25 PM ET
hit rate (all)
Ready68.1%
n=47
as of Oct 18
trailing 300
Ready68.1%
n=47
as of Oct 18
best market
Readyspread
68.1% · n=47
as of Oct 18
weeks 1-9
Ready68.1%
n=47
as of Oct 18
weeks 10-18
—
n=0
as of Oct 18
playoffs
—
n=0
as of Oct 18
Angle card · what every angle carries
“Public Fade”
The tell
spread
Fires tonight on 0 games.
Blind spot
spread (68.1% · n=47).
Famous call: MIA @ MIN — spread (60.0%, hit).
Rolling hit rate needs 100 graded claims — not there yet.
- Graded claims
- 79
- Hit · Brier
- 68.4% · 0.233
- Lift vs break-even
- +16.0 pts
- CLV when followed
- +0.1
- By regime
- early 68.1% · late — · playoffs —
- Drift (trailing 300)
- — (needs 300 graded)
- Rating
- Not rated yet
- Used in other angles
- None yet
Counts differ by cohort: the tiles above use decided claims (wins and losses) in each window, while Graded claims counts every graded ledger row, pushes included. Lift here is measured against the −110 break-even; the card on /lenses measures it against the other lenses.
Record by part of the season
| Weeks | Hit rate | Games |
|---|---|---|
| 1-9 | 68.1% | 47 |
| 10-18 | — | 0 |
| playoffs | — | 0 |
Calibration
dot size = n; dashed = perfect calibration · n=47 · as of Oct 18, 6:25 PM ET
Tells it reads
- spread
Last graded calls
| Game | Call | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN @ IND | spread | 59.7% | hit |
| PIT @ TB | spread | 59.7% | miss |
| NYJ @ NE | spread | 59.7% | hit |
| CHI @ ATL | spread | 59.7% | hit |
| BAL @ CLE | spread | 59.7% | hit |
| TB @ DAL | spread | 59.6% | hit |
| SF @ SEA | spread | 59.6% | miss |
| PHI @ JAX | spread | 59.6% | hit |
| NYG @ WAS | spread | 59.6% | miss |
| LV @ NE | spread | 59.6% | hit |
Scoreboard
Not enough graded games yet.
Last 300 games
Not enough graded games yet.
This season
Not enough graded games yet.
Reliability
Brier / ECE per window, read off the scoreboard's own rows — the confidence-vs-observed curve above (from the hourly update) is a separate reading.
Record by conditions
Not enough graded games to compare conditions yet (Last 300 games).
Recent calls
| Game | Market / side | Percentile | Details | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC @ KC | spread · away | 100% | ticketsPctHome | pending |
| WAS @ SF | spread · away | 100% | ticketsPctHome | pending |
| WAS @ SF | spread · away | 100% | ticketsPctHome | pending |
| LAC @ KC | spread · away | 100% | ticketsPctHome | pending |
| ARI @ LA | spread · away | 100% | ticketsPctHome | pending |
| ARI @ LA | spread · away | 100% | ticketsPctHome | pending |
| PIT @ TB | spread · home | 100% | ticketsPctHome | loss |
| NYJ @ NE | spread · away | 100% | ticketsPctHome | win |
| TEN @ IND | spread · away | 100% | ticketsPctHome | win |
| NYJ @ NE | spread · away | 100% | ticketsPctHome | win |