Angles · look-through
Model Market Gap
as of Oct 18, 6:25 PM ET
hit rate (all)
Ready34.8%
n=66
as of Oct 18
trailing 300
Ready34.8%
n=66
as of Oct 18
best market
Readymoneyline
34.8% · n=66
as of Oct 18
weeks 1-9
Ready34.8%
n=66
as of Oct 18
weeks 10-18
—
n=0
as of Oct 18
playoffs
—
n=0
as of Oct 18
Angle card · what every angle carries
“Model Market Gap”
The tell
moneyline
Fires tonight on 0 games.
Blind spot
moneyline (34.8% · n=66).
Famous call: SF @ LA — moneyline (50.0%, hit).
Rolling hit rate needs 100 graded claims — not there yet.
- Graded claims
- 66
- Hit · Brier
- 34.8% · 0.241
- Lift vs break-even
- -17.6 pts
- CLV when followed
- +0.0
- By regime
- early 34.8% · late — · playoffs —
- Drift (trailing 300)
- — (needs 300 graded)
- Rating
- Not rated yet
- Used in other angles
- None yet
Counts differ by cohort: the tiles above use decided claims (wins and losses) in each window, while Graded claims counts every graded ledger row, pushes included. Lift here is measured against the −110 break-even; the card on /lenses measures it against the other lenses.
Record by part of the season
| Weeks | Hit rate | Games |
|---|---|---|
| 1-9 | 34.8% | 66 |
| 10-18 | — | 0 |
| playoffs | — | 0 |
Calibration
dot size = n; dashed = perfect calibration · n=66 · as of Oct 18, 6:25 PM ET
Tells it reads
- moneyline
Last graded calls
| Game | Call | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN @ IND | moneyline | 41.0% | hit |
| NYJ @ NE | moneyline | 41.0% | miss |
| NO @ NYG | moneyline | 41.0% | hit |
| HOU @ JAX | moneyline | 41.0% | hit |
| CHI @ ATL | moneyline | 41.0% | miss |
| CAR @ PHI | moneyline | 41.0% | miss |
| BAL @ CLE | moneyline | 41.0% | hit |
| TB @ DAL | moneyline | 42.7% | hit |
| SF @ SEA | moneyline | 44.0% | hit |
| PHI @ JAX | moneyline | 42.7% | miss |
Scoreboard
Not enough graded games yet.
Last 300 games
Not enough graded games yet.
This season
Not enough graded games yet.
Reliability
Brier / ECE per window, read off the scoreboard's own rows — the confidence-vs-observed curve above (from the hourly update) is a separate reading.
Record by conditions
Not enough graded games to compare conditions yet (Last 300 games).
Recent calls
| Game | Market / side | Percentile | Details |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF @ ATL | moneyline · home | 100% | moneylineHomeClose, modelPHome, modelCount |
| TB @ CAR | moneyline · away | 100% | moneylineHomeClose, modelPHome, modelCount |
| LA @ LV | moneyline · home | 100% | moneylineHomeClose, modelPHome, modelCount |
| KC @ SEA | moneyline · away | 100% | moneylineHomeClose, modelPHome, modelCount |
| NYG @ HOU | moneyline · away | 100% | moneylineHomeClose, modelPHome, modelCount |
| PIT @ NO | moneyline · home | 100% | moneylineHomeClose, modelPHome, modelCount |
| GB @ DET | moneyline · away | 100% | moneylineHomeClose, modelPHome, modelCount |
| IND @ MIN | moneyline · away | 100% | moneylineHomeClose, modelPHome, modelCount |
| CLE @ TEN | moneyline · home | 100% | moneylineHomeClose, modelPHome, modelCount |
| CIN @ BAL | moneyline · away | 100% | moneylineHomeClose, modelPHome, modelCount |