Angles · look-through
Model Edge
as of Oct 18, 6:25 PM ET
hit rate (all)
Ready40.0%
n=30
as of Oct 18
trailing 300
Ready40.0%
n=30
as of Oct 18
best market
Readyspread
40.0% · n=30
as of Oct 18
weeks 1-9
Ready40.0%
n=30
as of Oct 18
weeks 10-18
—
n=0
as of Oct 18
playoffs
—
n=0
as of Oct 18
Angle card · what every angle carries
“Model Edge”
The tell
spread
Fires tonight on 0 games.
Blind spot
spread (40.0% · n=30).
Famous call: NYJ @ CHI — spread (51.4%, hit).
Rolling hit rate needs 100 graded claims — not there yet.
- Graded claims
- 52
- Hit · Brier
- 40.4% · 0.251
- Lift vs break-even
- -12.0 pts
- CLV when followed
- -0.0
- By regime
- early 40.0% · late — · playoffs —
- Drift (trailing 300)
- — (needs 300 graded)
- Rating
- Not rated yet
- Used in other angles
- None yet
Counts differ by cohort: the tiles above use decided claims (wins and losses) in each window, while Graded claims counts every graded ledger row, pushes included. Lift here is measured against the −110 break-even; the card on /lenses measures it against the other lenses.
Record by part of the season
| Weeks | Hit rate | Games |
|---|---|---|
| 1-9 | 40.0% | 30 |
| 10-18 | — | 0 |
| playoffs | — | 0 |
Calibration
dot size = n; dashed = perfect calibration · n=30 · as of Oct 18, 6:25 PM ET
Tells it reads
- spread
Last graded calls
| Game | Call | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN @ IND | spread | 44.9% | miss |
| NO @ NYG | spread | 44.9% | hit |
| BAL @ CLE | spread | 44.9% | hit |
| TB @ DAL | spread | 47.6% | hit |
| SF @ SEA | spread | 47.6% | miss |
| PHI @ JAX | spread | 47.6% | miss |
| MIN @ NO | spread | 47.6% | miss |
| HOU @ TEN | spread | 47.6% | miss |
| DET @ ARI | spread | 47.6% | miss |
| CLE @ NYJ | spread | 47.6% | hit |
Scoreboard
Not enough graded games yet.
Last 300 games
Not enough graded games yet.
This season
Not enough graded games yet.
Reliability
Brier / ECE per window, read off the scoreboard's own rows — the confidence-vs-observed curve above (from the hourly update) is a separate reading.
Record by conditions
Not enough graded games to compare conditions yet (Last 300 games).
Recent calls
| Game | Market / side | Percentile | Details |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB @ CAR | spread · away | 100% | modelPHome, modelCount |
| TB @ CAR | spread · away | 100% | modelPHome, modelCount |
| MIA @ NYJ | spread · home | 100% | modelPHome, modelCount |
| MIA @ NYJ | spread · home | 100% | modelPHome, modelCount |
| CLE @ TEN | spread · home | 100% | modelPHome, modelCount |
| IND @ MIN | spread · home | 100% | modelPHome, modelCount |
| DEN @ ARI | spread · home | 100% | modelPHome, modelCount |
| DEN @ ARI | spread · home | 100% | modelPHome, modelCount |
| IND @ MIN | spread · home | 100% | modelPHome, modelCount |
| CLE @ TEN | spread · home | 100% | modelPHome, modelCount |