Angles · look-through
Ml Divisional Dog
as of Oct 18, 6:25 PM ET
hit rate (all)
Ready40.6%
n=342
as of Oct 18
trailing 300
Ready41.3%
n=300
as of Oct 18
best market
Readymoneyline
40.6% · n=342
as of Oct 18
weeks 1-9
Ready40.7%
n=150
as of Oct 18
weeks 10-18
Ready41.2%
n=187
as of Oct 18
playoffs
Ready33.3%
n=6
as of Oct 18
Angle card · what every angle carries
“Ml Divisional Dog”
The tell
moneyline
Fires tonight on 0 games.
Blind spot
moneyline (40.6% · n=342).
Famous call: HOU @ JAX — moneyline (41.7%, hit).
- Graded claims
- 342
- Hit · Brier
- 40.6% · 0.241
- Lift vs break-even
- -11.8 pts
- CLV when followed
- +0.0
- By regime
- early 40.7% · late 41.2% · playoffs 33.3%
- Drift (trailing 300)
- stable
- Rating
- Not rated yet
- Used in other angles
- None yet
Counts differ by cohort: the tiles above use decided claims (wins and losses) in each window, while Graded claims counts every graded ledger row, pushes included. Lift here is measured against the −110 break-even; the card on /lenses measures it against the other lenses.
Record by part of the season
| Weeks | Hit rate | Games |
|---|---|---|
| 1-9 | 40.7% | 150 |
| 10-18 | 41.2% | 187 |
| playoffs | 33.3% | 6 |
Calibration
dot size = n; dashed = perfect calibration · n=342 · as of Oct 18, 6:25 PM ET
Tells it reads
- moneyline
Last graded calls
| Game | Call | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU @ JAX | moneyline | 41.7% | hit |
| BAL @ CLE | moneyline | 41.7% | hit |
| SF @ SEA | moneyline | 41.5% | hit |
| DEN @ LAC | moneyline | 41.5% | miss |
| CHI @ GB | moneyline | 41.5% | hit |
| PIT @ CLE | moneyline | 41.3% | hit |
| KC @ LV | moneyline | 41.5% | miss |
| ATL @ NO | moneyline | 41.3% | hit |
| HOU @ IND | moneyline | 41.0% | hit |
| CIN @ PIT | moneyline | 41.0% | hit |
Scoreboard
40.5%
n=342 · #7 of 7 ranked
Last 300 games
41.1%
n=300 · #7 of 7 ranked
This season
Not enough graded games yet.
Reliability
Brier / ECE per window, read off the scoreboard's own rows — the confidence-vs-observed curve above (from the hourly update) is a separate reading.
Record by conditions
Not enough graded games to compare conditions yet (Last 300 games).
Recent calls
| Game | Market / side | Percentile | Details | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB @ CAR | moneyline · away | 100% | divisional, moneylineHomeClose | pending |
| MIA @ NYJ | moneyline · away | 100% | divisional, moneylineHomeClose | pending |
| GB @ DET | moneyline · away | 100% | divisional, moneylineHomeClose | pending |
| CIN @ BAL | moneyline · away | 100% | divisional, moneylineHomeClose | pending |
| HOU @ JAX | moneyline · away | 100% | divisional, moneylineHomeClose | win |
| BAL @ CLE | moneyline · home | 100% | divisional, moneylineHomeClose | win |
| DEN @ LAC | moneyline · home | 100% | divisional, moneylineHomeClose | loss |
| SF @ SEA | moneyline · away | 100% | divisional, moneylineHomeClose | win |
| NYG @ WAS | moneyline · away | 100% | divisional, moneylineHomeClose | push |
| CHI @ GB | moneyline · home | 100% | divisional, moneylineHomeClose | win |