Angles · look-through
Favorite Trap
as of Oct 18, 6:25 PM ET
hit rate (all)
Ready27.6%
n=29
as of Oct 18
trailing 300
Ready27.6%
n=29
as of Oct 18
best market
Readymoneyline
27.6% · n=29
as of Oct 18
weeks 1-9
Ready33.3%
n=9
as of Oct 18
weeks 10-18
Ready25.0%
n=20
as of Oct 18
playoffs
—
n=0
as of Oct 18
Angle card · what every angle carries
“Favorite Trap”
The tell
moneyline
Fires tonight on 0 games.
Blind spot
moneyline (27.6% · n=29).
Famous call: CHI @ WAS — moneyline (32.6%, hit).
Rolling hit rate needs 100 graded claims — not there yet.
- Graded claims
- 29
- Hit · Brier
- 27.6% · 0.202
- Lift vs break-even
- -24.8 pts
- CLV when followed
- —
- By regime
- early 33.3% · late 25.0% · playoffs —
- Drift (trailing 300)
- — (needs 300 graded)
- Rating
- Not rated yet
- Used in other angles
- None yet
Counts differ by cohort: the tiles above use decided claims (wins and losses) in each window, while Graded claims counts every graded ledger row, pushes included. Lift here is measured against the −110 break-even; the card on /lenses measures it against the other lenses.
Record by part of the season
| Weeks | Hit rate | Games |
|---|---|---|
| 1-9 | 33.3% | 9 |
| 10-18 | 25.0% | 20 |
| playoffs | — | 0 |
Calibration
dot size = n; dashed = perfect calibration · n=29 · as of Oct 18, 6:25 PM ET
Tells it reads
- moneyline
Last graded calls
| Game | Call | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN @ PIT | moneyline | 32.6% | miss |
| CHI @ WAS | moneyline | 32.6% | hit |
| NE @ ARI | moneyline | 32.6% | miss |
| KC @ CAR | moneyline | 32.6% | miss |
| SEA @ SF | moneyline | 32.6% | hit |
| LV @ MIA | moneyline | 32.6% | miss |
| DAL @ SF | moneyline | 32.6% | miss |
| WAS @ LA | moneyline | 32.6% | miss |
| SF @ ARI | moneyline | 32.6% | miss |
| DEN @ BUF | moneyline | 32.6% | hit |
Scoreboard
Not enough graded games yet.
Last 300 games
Not enough graded games yet.
This season
Not enough graded games yet.
Reliability
Brier / ECE per window, read off the scoreboard's own rows — the confidence-vs-observed curve above (from the hourly update) is a separate reading.
Record by conditions
Not enough graded games to compare conditions yet (Last 300 games).
Recent calls
| Game | Market / side | Percentile | Details | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN @ PIT | moneyline · away | 100% | moneylineHomeClose, restDaysHome | loss |
| CHI @ WAS | moneyline · away | 100% | moneylineHomeClose, restDaysHome | win |
| NE @ ARI | moneyline · away | 100% | moneylineHomeClose, restDaysHome | loss |
| KC @ CAR | moneyline · home | 100% | moneylineHomeClose, restDaysAway | loss |
| SEA @ SF | moneyline · away | 100% | moneylineHomeClose, restDaysHome | win |
| LV @ MIA | moneyline · away | 100% | moneylineHomeClose, restDaysHome | loss |
| DAL @ SF | moneyline · away | 100% | moneylineHomeClose, restDaysHome | loss |
| WAS @ LA | moneyline · away | 100% | moneylineHomeClose, restDaysHome | loss |
| SF @ ARI | moneyline · home | 100% | moneylineHomeClose, restDaysAway | loss |
| DEN @ BUF | moneyline · away | 100% | moneylineHomeClose, restDaysHome | win |