Angles · look-through
Divisional Dog
as of Oct 18, 6:25 PM ET
hit rate (all)
Ready54.3%
n=698
as of Oct 18
trailing 300
Ready53.3%
n=300
as of Oct 18
best market
Readyspread
54.3% · n=698
as of Oct 18
weeks 1-9
Ready55.7%
n=291
as of Oct 18
weeks 10-18
Ready53.8%
n=394
as of Oct 18
playoffs
Ready46.7%
n=15
as of Oct 18
Angle card · what every angle carries
“Divisional Dog”
The tell
spread
Fires tonight on 0 games.
Blind spot
spread (54.3% · n=698).
Famous call: TEN @ IND — spread (54.2%, hit).
- Graded claims
- 714
- Hit · Brier
- 54.9% · 0.248
- Lift vs break-even
- +2.5 pts
- CLV when followed
- +0.1
- By regime
- early 55.7% · late 53.8% · playoffs 46.7%
- Drift (trailing 300)
- stable
- Rating
- Not rated yet
- Used in other angles
- None yet
Counts differ by cohort: the tiles above use decided claims (wins and losses) in each window, while Graded claims counts every graded ledger row, pushes included. Lift here is measured against the −110 break-even; the card on /lenses measures it against the other lenses.
Record by part of the season
| Weeks | Hit rate | Games |
|---|---|---|
| 1-9 | 55.7% | 291 |
| 10-18 | 53.8% | 394 |
| playoffs | 46.7% | 15 |
Calibration
dot size = n; dashed = perfect calibration · n=698 · as of Oct 18, 6:25 PM ET
Tells it reads
- spread
Last graded calls
| Game | Call | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN @ IND | spread | 54.2% | hit |
| NYJ @ NE | spread | 54.2% | hit |
| HOU @ JAX | spread | 54.2% | hit |
| BAL @ CLE | spread | 54.2% | hit |
| SF @ SEA | spread | 54.1% | hit |
| NYG @ WAS | spread | 54.1% | hit |
| HOU @ TEN | spread | 54.1% | miss |
| DEN @ LAC | spread | 54.1% | hit |
| CHI @ GB | spread | 54.1% | hit |
| PIT @ CLE | spread | 53.6% | hit |
Scoreboard
54.5%
n=721 · #1 of 7 ranked
Last 300 games
54.2%
n=300 · #1 of 7 ranked
This season
Not enough graded games yet.
Reliability
Brier / ECE per window, read off the scoreboard's own rows — the confidence-vs-observed curve above (from the hourly update) is a separate reading.
Record by conditions
Not enough graded games to compare conditions yet (Last 300 games).
Recent calls
| Game | Market / side | Percentile | Details |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB @ CAR | spread · away | 100% | divisional, spreadClose |
| TB @ CAR | spread · home | 100% | divisional, spreadClose |
| MIA @ NYJ | spread · away | 100% | divisional, spreadClose |
| MIA @ NYJ | spread · away | 100% | divisional, spreadClose |
| GB @ DET | spread · away | 100% | divisional, spreadClose |
| DAL @ PHI | spread · home | 100% | divisional, spreadClose |
| CIN @ BAL | spread · away | 100% | divisional, spreadClose |
| DAL @ PHI | spread · away | 100% | divisional, spreadClose |
| CIN @ BAL | spread · away | 100% | divisional, spreadClose |
| GB @ DET | spread · away | 100% | divisional, spreadClose |