Angles · look-through
Casual Bettor
Method card
Casual Bettor v2
A lopsided spread-ticket majority may be a measurable crowd lean; this lens fades that lean as a hypothesis and does not claim an edge without qualifying evaluation evidence.
- Market / side
- spread · selected side is opposite public ticket lean
- Source freshness
- 172800s maximum age
- Evidence summary
- insufficient data · n not measured
Method details are not published yet.
as of Oct 18, 6:25 PM ET
hit rate (all)
Ready41.9%
n=74
as of Oct 18
trailing 300
Ready41.9%
n=74
as of Oct 18
best market
Readyedge-direction
41.9% · n=74
as of Oct 18
weeks 1-9
Ready41.9%
n=74
as of Oct 18
weeks 10-18
—
n=0
as of Oct 18
playoffs
—
n=0
as of Oct 18
Angle card · what every angle carries
“The public-side read: favorites and overs lean, flagged as "the public lean".”
The tell
edge-direction
Fires tonight on 2 games.
Blind spot
edge-direction (41.9% · n=74).
Famous call: MIA @ SF — edge-direction (53.8%, hit).
Rolling hit rate needs 100 graded claims — not there yet.
- Graded claims
- 74
- Hit · Brier
- 41.9% · 0.256
- Lift vs break-even
- -10.5 pts
- CLV when followed
- —
- By regime
- early 41.9% · late — · playoffs —
- Drift (trailing 300)
- — (needs 300 graded)
- Rating
- No model yet
- Used in other angles
- None yet
Counts differ by cohort: the tiles above use decided claims (wins and losses) in each window, while Graded claims counts every graded ledger row, pushes included. Lift here is measured against the −110 break-even; the card on /lenses measures it against the other lenses.
Record by part of the season
| Weeks | Hit rate | Games |
|---|---|---|
| 1-9 | 41.9% | 74 |
| 10-18 | — | 0 |
| playoffs | — | 0 |
Calibration
dot size = n; dashed = perfect calibration · n=74 · as of Oct 18, 6:25 PM ET
Tells it reads
- edge-direction
Last graded calls
| Game | Call | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA @ DEN | edge-direction | 51.7% | miss |
| BUF @ LA | edge-direction | 52.4% | hit |
| PHI @ JAX | edge-direction | 53.4% | miss |
| IND @ PIT | edge-direction | 52.1% | miss |
| DET @ ARI | edge-direction | 53.0% | hit |
| DEN @ LAC | edge-direction | 52.4% | hit |
| BAL @ ATL | edge-direction | 52.1% | hit |
| TB @ DAL | edge-direction | 53.6% | miss |
| SF @ SEA | edge-direction | 52.1% | hit |
| NYG @ WAS | edge-direction | 52.4% | hit |
Scoreboard
Not enough graded games yet.
Last 300 games
Not enough graded games yet.
This season
Not enough graded games yet.
Reliability
Brier / ECE per window, read off the scoreboard's own rows — the confidence-vs-observed curve above (from the hourly update) is a separate reading.
Record by conditions
Not enough graded games to compare conditions yet (Last 300 games).
Recent calls
| Game | Market / side | Result |
|---|---|---|
| DEN @ KC | spread · away | loss |
| NYJ @ TEN | spread · home | loss |
| DAL @ NYG | spread · away | loss |
| WAS @ PHI | spread · home | loss |
| MIA @ LV | spread · home | win |
| ARI @ LAC | spread · away | win |
| GB @ MIN | spread · away | loss |
| ATL @ PIT | spread · home | win |
| BAL @ IND | spread · home | loss |
| CLE @ JAX | spread · home | win |