Definition
Futures bet is a wager on a season-long or long-horizon outcome: Super Bowl winner, division champion, MVP award, win totals. Priced in American odds weeks or months before resolution. Books hold significant margin in futures — combined implied probabilities for Super Bowl winner often sum to 130–140%. Capital is tied up for the season with no liquidity. Early-season futures carry more uncertainty but can offer the most mispriced value before public narrative forms.
Worked Example
Chiefs to win Super Bowl posted +550 in August. Your model gives them 22% win probability. Implied probability of +550: 100 ÷ (550 + 100) = 15.4%. Edge = 22% − 15.4% = 6.6%. Bet $100: expected profit = (0.22 × $550) − (0.78 × $100) = $43. Book's total implied probabilities sum to 135% (35% overround), but hold — what the book actually keeps per dollar bet — is 1 − 1/1.35 ≈ 26 cents, not 35; raw overround overstates hold the same way it does on any two-sided market (see hold.md).
Why It Matters
Early futures with wide hold percentages reward research that outpaces public perception. Teams with undervalued rosters or soft schedules are consistently mispriced before Week 1.
