Variance Simulator

Run the numbers. A good bettor can still lose for a month.

Bets per week Weeks Win probability % Stake units American odds

Cold run (5th pct)

-11.3%

Middle of the road (median)

-0.1%

Heater (95th pct)

+12.3%

4.7% of runs hit the simulator's loss threshold

Variance is normal. Even with a solid edge, a good bettor can lose for a month straight. This simulator runs 2,000 parallel seasons using your inputs. The fan chart shows the range of outcomes — the blue line is the median, the green bands cover 50% and 90% of all runs. A high bust rate points to overbetting or an edge too thin for the stake.