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Model calibration

10 probability bins from settled picks. The diagonal is perfect calibration.

sport: nba season: all models: 11
0%0%25%25%50%50%75%75%100%100%[Auto] NBA Cover Probability (XGBoost Classifier) bin 0.9-1.0: predicted 100%, actual 100%, n=4[Auto] NBA Elo Power Ratings Moneyline (LogReg) bin 0.7-0.8: predicted 72%, actual 80%, n=5[Auto] NBA Market Efficiency Moneyline (LogReg) bin 0.5-0.6: predicted 51%, actual 100%, n=1[Auto] NBA Market Efficiency Moneyline (LogReg) bin 0.6-0.7: predicted 63%, actual 33%, n=3[Auto] NBA Market Efficiency Moneyline (LogReg) bin 0.7-0.8: predicted 72%, actual 100%, n=1[Auto] NBA Minimal Signal Moneyline (LogReg) bin 0.5-0.6: predicted 51%, actual 100%, n=1[Auto] NBA Minimal Signal Moneyline (LogReg) bin 0.6-0.7: predicted 63%, actual 33%, n=3[Auto] NBA Minimal Signal Moneyline (LogReg) bin 0.7-0.8: predicted 72%, actual 100%, n=1[Auto] NBA MLP Moneyline bin 0.5-0.6: predicted 55%, actual 25%, n=4[Auto] NBA MLP Moneyline bin 0.6-0.7: predicted 61%, actual 100%, n=1[Auto] NBA Moneyline (ExtraTrees) bin 0.5-0.6: predicted 56%, actual 25%, n=4[Auto] NBA Moneyline (ExtraTrees) bin 0.6-0.7: predicted 65%, actual 100%, n=1[Auto] NBA Moneyline (Ridge Classifier) bin 0.5-0.6: predicted 57%, actual 50%, n=2[Auto] NBA Moneyline (Ridge Classifier) bin 0.6-0.7: predicted 65%, actual 33%, n=3[Auto] NBA Moneyline (TabPFN) bin 0.5-0.6: predicted 56%, actual 50%, n=2[Auto] NBA Moneyline (TabPFN) bin 0.6-0.7: predicted 65%, actual 33%, n=3[Auto] NBA Moneyline (Voting Ensemble) bin 0.5-0.6: predicted 52%, actual 100%, n=2[Auto] NBA Moneyline (Voting Ensemble) bin 0.6-0.7: predicted 64%, actual 33%, n=3[Auto] NBA Moneyline Classifier (Logistic) bin 0.5-0.6: predicted 52%, actual 100%, n=1[Auto] NBA Moneyline Classifier (Logistic) bin 0.6-0.7: predicted 65%, actual 50%, n=4[Auto] NBA Moneyline Classifier (Random Forest) bin 0.5-0.6: predicted 55%, actual 50%, n=2[Auto] NBA Moneyline Classifier (Random Forest) bin 0.6-0.7: predicted 63%, actual 0%, n=2[Auto] NBA Moneyline Classifier (Random Forest) bin 0.7-0.8: predicted 72%, actual 100%, n=1Mean predicted probabilityObserved win rate
Bins
23
Samples
54
Active models
[Auto] NBA Cover Probability (XGBoost Classifier)[Auto] NBA Elo Power Ratings Moneyline (LogReg)[Auto] NBA Market Efficiency Moneyline (LogReg)[Auto] NBA Minimal Signal Moneyline (LogReg)[Auto] NBA MLP Moneyline[Auto] NBA Moneyline (ExtraTrees)[Auto] NBA Moneyline (Ridge Classifier)[Auto] NBA Moneyline (TabPFN)[Auto] NBA Moneyline (Voting Ensemble)[Auto] NBA Moneyline Classifier (Logistic)[Auto] NBA Moneyline Classifier (Random Forest)

Cumulative P&L

Profit curve from model run profit and bankroll rows.

Current
+2.27
2026-05-13: +0.912026-05-13: +1.822026-05-13: +2.732026-05-13: +1.732026-05-13: +2.642026-05-13: +3.542026-05-13: +4.452026-05-13: +5.362026-05-13: +6.272026-05-13: +5.272026-05-13: +6.182026-05-14: +5.182026-05-14: +4.182026-05-14: +3.182026-05-14: +4.092026-05-14: +3.092026-05-14: +2.092026-05-14: +1.092026-05-14: +0.092026-05-14: −0.912026-05-14: −0.002026-05-14: −1.002026-05-16: −0.092026-05-16: +0.822026-05-16: +1.732026-05-16: +2.632026-05-16: +1.632026-05-16: +2.542026-05-16: +3.452026-05-16: +4.362026-05-16: +5.272026-05-16: +4.272026-05-16: +3.272026-05-16: +4.182026-05-16: +5.092026-05-16: +6.002026-05-16: +6.912026-05-16: +7.822026-05-16: +8.722026-05-16: +7.722026-05-16: +8.632026-05-16: +9.542026-05-16: +8.542026-05-16: +9.452026-05-18: +8.452026-05-18: +7.452026-05-18: +6.452026-05-18: +7.362026-05-18: +6.362026-05-18: +5.362026-05-18: +4.362026-05-18: +3.362026-05-18: +2.362026-05-18: +3.272026-05-18: +2.27+9.54−1.00

Pick ledger

Per-pick CLV, result, and profit.

2026-05-18nbagame_moneyline-0.00win-0.91
2026-05-18nbagame_moneyline-1.00loss--1.00
2026-05-18nbagame_moneyline-1.00loss--1.00
2026-05-18nbagame_moneyline-1.00loss--1.00
2026-05-18nbagame_moneyline-1.00loss--1.00
2026-05-18nbagame_moneyline-1.00loss--1.00
2026-05-18nbagame_moneyline-1.00loss--1.00
2026-05-18nbagame_moneyline-0.00win-0.91
2026-05-18nbagame_moneyline-1.00loss--1.00
2026-05-18nbagame_moneyline-1.00loss--1.00
2026-05-18nbagame_moneyline-1.00loss--1.00
2026-05-16nbagame_moneyline-0.00win-0.91
2026-05-16nbagame_moneyline-0.00win-0.91
2026-05-16nbagame_moneyline-0.00win-0.91
2026-05-16nbagame_moneyline-0.00win-0.91
2026-05-16nbagame_moneyline-1.00loss--1.00
2026-05-16nbagame_moneyline-0.00win-0.91
2026-05-16nbagame_moneyline-1.00loss--1.00
2026-05-16nbagame_moneyline-0.00win-0.91
2026-05-16nbagame_moneyline-0.00win-0.91
2026-05-16nbagame_moneyline-0.00win-0.91
2026-05-16nbagame_moneyline-0.00win-0.91
2026-05-16nbagame_moneyline-0.00win-0.91
2026-05-16nbagame_moneyline-1.00loss--1.00
2026-05-16nbagame_moneyline-0.00win-0.91
2026-05-16nbagame_moneyline-0.00win-0.91
2026-05-16nbagame_moneyline-0.00win-0.91
2026-05-16nbagame_moneyline-0.00win-0.91
2026-05-16nbagame_moneyline-0.00win-0.91
2026-05-16nbagame_moneyline-1.00loss--1.00
2026-05-16nbagame_moneyline-0.00win-0.91
2026-05-16nbagame_moneyline-1.00loss--1.00
2026-05-16nbagame_moneyline-0.00win-0.91
2026-05-14nbagame_moneyline-1.00loss--1.00
2026-05-14nbagame_moneyline-1.00loss--1.00
2026-05-14nbagame_moneyline-0.00win-0.91
2026-05-14nbagame_moneyline-1.00loss--1.00
2026-05-14nbagame_moneyline-1.00loss--1.00
2026-05-14nbagame_moneyline-1.00loss--1.00
2026-05-14nbagame_moneyline-1.00loss--1.00
2026-05-14nbagame_moneyline-1.00loss--1.00
2026-05-14nbagame_moneyline-0.00win-0.91
2026-05-14nbagame_moneyline-1.00loss--1.00
2026-05-14nbagame_moneyline-1.00loss--1.00
2026-05-13nbagame_moneyline-1.00win-0.91
2026-05-13nbagame_moneyline-0.00loss--1.00
2026-05-13nbagame_moneyline-0.00loss--1.00
2026-05-13nbagame_moneyline-1.00win-0.91
2026-05-13nbagame_moneyline-1.00win-0.91
2026-05-13nbagame_moneyline-1.00win-0.91
2026-05-13nbagame_moneyline-1.00win-0.91
2026-05-13nbagame_moneyline-1.00win-0.91
2026-05-13nbagame_moneyline-1.00win-0.91
2026-05-13nbagame_moneyline-1.00win-0.91
2026-05-13nbagame_moneyline-1.00win-0.91
Pick a dataset to start

Analytics needs a dataset and at least one suggested renderer before it can draw.

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