Beta · Phase 1 Anti-Tout Science Desk
Trout Tout Track real tout ROI vs our public model picks.
Per-source pick-accuracy leaderboard. Sample-size shrunk (Bayesian), 95% confidence intervals. Negative lift means the source's calls have underperformed the sport-position baseline — that's a trout. Fade it.
Building sample…
No source-accuracy data yet for this sport/window. The first cron tick that pairs mentions with player-game outcomes will populate this leaderboard. Check back in a few hours.
Sources making the boldest player calls (high-confidence + strong sentiment, last 90d). Hot-take index sums signed conviction; red = bullish-loaded, green = contrarian/bearish.
1 NEW Pro Football Focus 309 +19434
2 NEW ESPN NFL News 171 +8684
3 NEW CBS Sports NFL 163 +4117
4 YT Establish The Run 100 +4892
5 NEW Yahoo Sports NFL 95 +3620
6 YT JT O'Sullivan / The QB School 87 +4596
7 NEW ProFootballTalk 84 +2906
8 NEW Pro Football Rumors 72 +1549
9 YT NFL Network 71 +5056
10 YT FantasyPros 61 +2959
11 NEW SB Nation NFL 46 +1506
12 NEW Buffalo Rumblings (BUF) 42 +2000
13 NEW Arrowhead Pride (KC) 37 +1858
14 YT Voch Lombardi 36 +2112
15 POD The Bill Simmons Podcast 28 +555
16 YT Up & Adams (Kay Adams) 26 +1815
17 YT Chris Mannix (Sports Illustrated) 26 +1530
18 YT Mina Kimes Show 26 +1365
19 NEW Niners Nation (SF) 24 +1142
20 NEW Bucs Nation (TB) 21 +1274
What the columns mean
- Lift
- Shrunk point estimate of how much better (or worse) the source's calls performed vs the sport-position baseline. Positive = the source helped, negative = trout.
- Hit rate
- Win % on explicit picks, excluding pushes. 52.4% is breakeven vs -110 juice.
- 95% CI
- Confidence interval around the point estimate. Wide bars = thin sample; thin bars crossing 0 (or 50%) = the source is statistically indistinguishable from noise.
- n
- Sample size — observations contributing to the estimate. n < 10 is flagged as a small sample (faded CI bar).
- ROI
- Return on investment if you'd faded (or followed) the source at -110 unit-flat. Reported in the per-source detail page.
- CLV
- Closing-line value — how much the line moved after the source's pick, in the source's direction (avg %). The strongest long-run skill signal.