Beta · Phase 1 Anti-Tout Science Desk
Trout Tout Track real tout ROI vs our public model picks.
Per-source pick-accuracy leaderboard. Sample-size shrunk (Bayesian), 95% confidence intervals. Negative lift means the source's calls have underperformed the sport-position baseline — that's a trout. Fade it.
Building sample…
No source-accuracy data yet for this sport/window. The first cron tick that pairs mentions with player-game outcomes will populate this leaderboard. Check back in a few hours.
Sources making the boldest player calls (high-confidence + strong sentiment, last 90d). Hot-take index sums signed conviction; red = bullish-loaded, green = contrarian/bearish.
1 POD The Bill Simmons Podcast 222 +3477
2 YT JxmyHighroller 59 +3439
3 YT Portland Trail Blazers (Official) 54 +3523
4 YT Thinking Basketball 37 +2746
5 YT Mike Korzemba 34 -1052
6 YT ESPN NBA 30 +1176
7 YT All The Smoke (Barnes/Jackson) 27 +2062
8 YT Bleacher Report 15 +372
9 NEW CBS Sports NFL 15 +265
10 YT The Athletic NFL Show 13 +850
11 YT HoopsHype 12 +1053
12 YT CBS Sports NFL 8 +410
13 NEW ESPN NFL News 4 +225
14 YT The Pat McAfee Show (YouTube) 2 +143
15 YT Chris Mannix (Sports Illustrated) 2 +143
16 NEW Pro Football Focus 2 +86
17 NEW Acme Packing Company (GB) 1 +45
18 NEW Windy City Gridiron (CHI) 1 +42
What the columns mean
- Lift
- Shrunk point estimate of how much better (or worse) the source's calls performed vs the sport-position baseline. Positive = the source helped, negative = trout.
- Hit rate
- Win % on explicit picks, excluding pushes. 52.4% is breakeven vs -110 juice.
- 95% CI
- Confidence interval around the point estimate. Wide bars = thin sample; thin bars crossing 0 (or 50%) = the source is statistically indistinguishable from noise.
- n
- Sample size — observations contributing to the estimate. n < 10 is flagged as a small sample (faded CI bar).
- ROI
- Return on investment if you'd faded (or followed) the source at -110 unit-flat. Reported in the per-source detail page.
- CLV
- Closing-line value — how much the line moved after the source's pick, in the source's direction (avg %). The strongest long-run skill signal.