Beta · Phase 1 Anti-Tout Science Desk

Trout Tout Pundit accuracy, science-graded. Fade the trout.

Per-source pick-accuracy leaderboard. Sample-size shrunk (Bayesian), 95% confidence intervals. Negative lift means the source's calls have underperformed the sport-position baseline — that's a trout. Fade it.

Building sample…

MLB leaderboard arrives in Phase 1.5 — extending the unified player-game view to MLB and NHL. Phase 1 covers NFL and NBA only.

Methodology. Lift is computed over a 14-day window after each episode published. Shrinkage uses an empirical-Bayes prior with pseudo-count 50 toward neutrality (lift = 0 or hit-rate = 50%). 95% CIs are Wald (lift) and Wilson (hit rate). Small samples (n < 10) appear but with faded CI bars.

Not investment / betting advice. Historical accuracy doesn't predict future performance, especially with thin samples. Use this as one signal among many.