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Bankroll & Staking

Bankroll Management

Staking discipline to survive variance.

Definition

Bankroll management is the discipline of deciding how much to stake from a set betting fund so losses from normal variance do not wipe out the account. The core formula is:

stake = bankroll × stake percentage

For Kelly staking, the formula is:

Kelly fraction = (bp - q) / b

where b is net decimal odds, p is your estimated win probability, and q = 1 - p.

Worked Example

A bettor has a $2,000 bankroll and uses a 1% flat-stake rule.

$2,000 × 0.01 = $20

Each bet is $20, regardless of confidence.

For a Kelly example, take a -110 line. Decimal odds are 1.9091, so b = 0.9091. If the bettor prices the bet at 55% win probability:

(0.9091 × 0.55 - 0.45) / 0.9091 = 0.055

Full Kelly stake is 5.5% of bankroll:

$2,000 × 0.055 = $110

Half Kelly would stake $55.

Why It Matters

Bankroll management helps a bettor keep bet size tied to account size and edge size. It is most useful when a bettor has many wagers ahead and needs losses, wins, and stake sizing to remain auditable.

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