Trout Tout Track real tout ROI vs our public model picks.
Per-source pick-accuracy leaderboard. Sample-size shrunk (Bayesian), 95% confidence intervals. Negative lift means the source's calls have underperformed the sport-position baseline — that's a trout. Fade it.
Last updated Wed, 10 Jun 2026 13:51:47 GMT · refreshes every 6h
Sentiment-as-pick lift
How much better (or worse) than baseline did players score after this source called them out? Sign-weighted: bullish takes "win" when the player exceeds baseline; bearish takes "win" when they underperform. Higher = better.
Sources making the boldest player calls (high-confidence + strong sentiment, last 90d). Hot-take index sums signed conviction; red = bullish-loaded, green = contrarian/bearish.
Explicit-pick hit rate
NFL pendingWhen a source makes an explicit over/under call, how often does it settle in their favor? Each pick matched to the closest pickem line + graded against the actual box score. NBA fully wired; NFL settlement bridge ships with Phase 2 (live on Sunday).
What the columns mean
- Lift
- Shrunk point estimate of how much better (or worse) the source's calls performed vs the sport-position baseline. Positive = the source helped, negative = trout.
- Hit rate
- Win % on explicit picks, excluding pushes. 52.4% is breakeven vs -110 juice.
- 95% CI
- Confidence interval around the point estimate. Wide bars = thin sample; thin bars crossing 0 (or 50%) = the source is statistically indistinguishable from noise.
- n
- Sample size — observations contributing to the estimate. n < 10 is flagged as a small sample (faded CI bar).
- ROI
- Return on investment if you'd faded (or followed) the source at -110 unit-flat. Reported in the per-source detail page.
- CLV
- Closing-line value — how much the line moved after the source's pick, in the source's direction (avg %). The strongest long-run skill signal.