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ELO + rest + weather vs the spread. Systematic underdogs in cold-weather divisional games.

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High-pace matchups beat the total. Possession volume under-weighted vs efficiency in DFS scoring.

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Market over-reacts to QB news on open, under-reacts to backup quality. Fade the injured favourite.

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Wind, pace, and situational context for totals where scoring conditions look overstated.

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Game-level NFL spread modeling. Bundles schedule, Vegas spread, Elo power ratings, weather + rest. XGBoost regression + quarter-Kelly staki…

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Game-level NFL totals (O/U). Bundles pace, defensive efficiency and weather/wind features with a gradient-boosting regressor + variance-cap…

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A model built on the thesis that Rest advantage should matter only when it is not paired with poor lagged continuity; trained with calibrat…

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An ensemble model combining elo, pace, and weather features with a quantile xgb architecture and kelly fraction staking will outperform the…

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A quantile-xgb model with team form, elo, and pace features, using a calibrated blend ensemble and kelly-fraction staking, will beat the in…

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Games played in cold outdoor conditions with significant wind suppress scoring relative to the posted total — wind reduces passing efficien…

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Back-to-back games suppress scoring as fatigue slows offensive execution. LightGBM quantifies how much a back-to-back depresses scoring rel…

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First-half totals are a pure starter quality bet before bullpen erosion kicks in. Recent form and pitch-mix evolution determine whether sta…

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The theory says that a player’s red-zone snaps and targets predict extra touchdown chances beyond what the betting line shows. The approach…

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Bayesian Ridge captures uncertainty in assist predictions for playmakers when role changes or lineup shuffles create unstable baselines. Us…

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Batters hit more doubles when facing fly-ball pitchers who give up soft contact. This model fuses pitcher xwOBA allowed, batter pull-rate,…

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Primary playmakers on contending teams facing defensive-minded opponents generate assist totals CatBoost can predict with higher accuracy t…

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Daily fantasy QB scoring is driven by passing volume, game script, and opposing secondary quality; this model predicts DraftKings QB points…

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Stars are rested on B2B nights, opening salary room for backup players who see elevated minutes. CatBoost identifies DFS value plays that e…

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Batter DFS value is determined by the intersection of six independent signal streams. This full-feature XGBoost model integrates all availa…

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Confirmed starting goalies facing offenses in the bottom quartile of shots-per-game score the most DraftKings DFS points in NHL daily lineu…

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A model built on the thesis that divisional underdogs are sharper than the market — familiarity compresses margins toward the dog; trained…

Backtest: 51.3% ATS over 483 - ROI -2.0% - Brier 0.255

Elo ratings provide a stable long-run power ranking that the market occasionally underweights in favor of recent streaks. Calibrated ensemb…

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Team strength relationships form a network where ELO ratings and recent form create graph edges. This GNN model captures the directional wi…

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XGBoost assist model combining player history, pace, defensive rating, home/away, and recent form for complete assist prop coverage across…

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