- Compare the house model's win chances with saved moneyline prices before choosing a side. Source: Shark Snip's Week 4 model board, built October 2, 2026, at 23:03 UTC.
- The House NFL Moneyline model has picks for 13 of the 15 listed games. Missing picks remain marked in the board below.
- The Chicago Bears have the highest house-model win probability at 74%. The New York Giants' estimate is 17.5 percentage points above the win rate required by their saved moneyline.
- The house estimates support a pass on the Buffalo Bills and Minnesota Vikings at their saved prices, despite broad support for both winners.
A moneyline is a win-only bet. The comparison is between the house model's estimated chance of winning and the win rate needed to break even at the saved price. A team can be favored to win while its price still asks for more confidence than the model gives it.
The figures below describe a saved board. They are not live offers. Read the win estimate and the price together, then check a fresh moneyline before using the comparison.
The saved moneyline board
Matchups follow the saved kickoff order, with the away team listed first. “Break-even” means the win rate required by the price. “Models agreeing” counts models that select the same winner as the house model, including the house model itself.
| Matchup | House pick and win chance | Saved price and break-even | Models agreeing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders | Indianapolis Colts: 57% | -198; 66.4% | 11 of 22 |
| Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants | New York Giants: 63% | +120; 45.5% | 7 of 22 |
| Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans | Houston Texans: 69% | -162; 61.8% | 15 of 22 |
| Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | No house-model pick stored | No comparison available | Not applicable |
| Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals | Jacksonville Jaguars: 62% | +120; 45.5% | 7 of 22 |
| Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles | No house-model pick stored | No comparison available | Not applicable |
| New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills | Buffalo Bills: 60% | -305; 75.3% | 19 of 22 |
| New York Jets at Chicago Bears | Chicago Bears: 74% | -185; 64.9% | 6 of 22 |
| Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens | Baltimore Ravens: 73% | -700; 87.5% | 4 of 22 |
| Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings | Minnesota Vikings: 63% | -625; 86.2% | 20 of 22 |
| Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers | San Francisco 49ers: 56% | -148; 59.7% | 18 of 22 |
| Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders | Kansas City Chiefs: 64% | -218; 68.6% | 18 of 22 |
| Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks | Seattle Seahawks: 72% | -375; 78.9% | 6 of 22 |
| Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers | Detroit Lions: 57% | -185; 64.9% | 17 of 22 |
| Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints | New Orleans Saints: 55% | -135; 57.4% | 18 of 22 |
A missing house pick has no probability or price comparison. It is not a forecast for the opponent or a claim that other models have no opinion. The saved board provides no house-model probability for Green Bay at Tampa Bay or the Rams at Philadelphia.
Buffalo and Minnesota: agreement has a price limit
Buffalo has broad support against New England: 19 of 22 models pick the Bills. The house estimate is 60%, while Buffalo's saved -305 price requires 75.3% to break even. Buffalo is a pass at that saved price.
The count says who the models think wins. It does not say they would pay that price. Treating agreement on a winner as agreement on a bet would skip the price comparison.
Minnesota has the most model agreement: 20 of 22 models select the Vikings. Yet Minnesota's 63% house estimate falls short of the 86.2% break-even rate at -625. The conclusion from the house estimate is a pass at that saved price.
Baltimore also shows why a high win forecast needs a price check. The Ravens' house estimate is 73%, compared with 87.5% required by the saved -700 moneyline. The house forecast favors Baltimore to win but does not support that saved moneyline.
A pass on the selected team does not recommend its opponent, a parlay or a larger stake.
Giants, Jaguars, Bears and Texans: different kinds of disagreement
The Giants' saved +120 moneyline makes New York an underdog against Arizona. The house model instead estimates a 63% win chance, against a 45.5% break-even rate. Only 7 of 22 models select the Giants, so the house forecast takes a minority view.
Jacksonville has a similar split against Cincinnati. The Jaguars' 62% estimate exceeds the 45.5% break-even rate at +120, a gap of 16.5 percentage points. Jacksonville is also selected by 7 of 22 models. The disagreement deserves scrutiny before treating the house estimate as a reliable advantage.
Chicago is already favored at its saved price. The Bears' 74% estimate is 9.1 percentage points above the 64.9% break-even rate. Chicago still has minority support on the board, with 6 of 22 models choosing the Bears.
Houston combines a positive model-price gap with majority support against Dallas. The Texans' 69% estimate clears the 61.8% break-even rate by 7.2 percentage points. Houston is selected by 15 of 22 models. That gives the comparison a different context from the minority views above; it does not establish that Houston will win.
These gaps compare probabilities. They are not predicted winning margins or measured profits. The saved board contains no uncertainty intervals for the game estimates, so it does not show how precise those gaps are.
The model count also carries no evidence that its voters are independent. A large tally should not be read as a panel of independent experts. Nor does a minority view become wrong simply because fewer models select it.
Saved Washington report: Nick Cross and Sam Cosmi Out
The saved injury data lists Washington safety Nick Cross and guard Sam Cosmi as Out for the Indianapolis matchup. That describes the stored report at the data date. It does not measure either player's effect on the house estimate.
The other matchups have empty injury entries in this snapshot. Empty entries do not establish that the teams are healthy or that no designations were filed. Check current availability separately; the moneyline comparisons here contain no fresh injury adjustment.
The Receipts Drawer
The comparison uses the selected House NFL Moneyline forecast throughout. It does not combine the board's model votes into a new win estimate. Each table row keeps the saved forecast and the count of agreeing models separate.
The snapshot does not identify a sportsbook or an individual quote time for these prices. It also lacks the dated bet results, stakes and prices needed to assess profitability. A positive model-price gap remains a forecast comparison, not a demonstrated return.
Use the model registry to examine the available model evidence and how Shark Snip works for the process. Compare a fresh price with the estimate before making a decision. If the price changes, the saved comparison must be reconsidered.
Week 4 FAQ
Does a high model win chance make the moneyline a good bet?
A high win chance alone does not justify the price. Indianapolis has a 57% house estimate. That is below the 66.4% needed to break even at its saved -198 price, so the comparison supports a pass.
Do these moneyline picks also recommend a spread or total?
No. The saved comparisons address which team wins. They contain no spread or game-total prediction. A moneyline preference cannot establish a margin of victory, a total-points forecast or a recommendation in either of those markets.
Why are Green Bay and the Rams missing from the house-pick column?
Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers has no stored house-model pick. Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles also has no stored house-model pick. No probability or price conclusion has been filled in for either matchup. The saved data does not explain the absence.
Is the break-even rate the market's true win forecast?
It is the win rate required by the saved moneyline, not a margin-free market consensus. The snapshot does not include the opposite side's price or a full market comparison. It therefore cannot establish a market-wide forecast or identify the best available offer.
Where these numbers come from
Every number above comes from Shark Snip’s Week 4 data pack, built Oct 2, 2026.
