Compare the House NFL Moneyline model’s win estimates with the saved moneyline prices.
Source: the saved Week 4 data pack, built October 2, 2026, at 23:03 UTC.
Check the available moneyline before using these figures.
Four prices to compare
Moneyline means price on winning. With the prices shown here, a win at minus odds earns less profit than the amount risked. At plus odds, it earns more profit than the amount risked.
Break even means no profit or loss.
| Pick and opponent | Saved moneyline | House win chance | Win rate to break even | Difference between the percentages |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Giants vs. Arizona Cardinals | +120 | 63% | 45.5% | 17.5 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals | +120 | 62% | 45.5% | 16.5 |
| Chicago Bears vs. New York Jets | -185 | 74% | 64.9% | 9.1 |
| Houston Texans vs. Dallas Cowboys | -162 | 69% | 61.8% | 7.2 |
Both underdogs have thin support: 7 of 22 models pick New York, and 7 of 22 pick Jacksonville.
Chicago tops the house forecasts at 74%. Houston’s smaller difference comes with broader model support.
Buffalo Bills and Minnesota Vikings: passes at these prices
The Buffalo Bills are a popular pick against the New England Patriots: 19 of the 22 models choose Buffalo.
The house model gives the Bills a 60% chance. Their saved -305 moneyline requires 75.3% to break even. The house estimate does not justify that price.
The Minnesota Vikings draw 20 of the 22 picks against the Miami Dolphins. Yet the house model puts their chance at 63%, below the 86.2% needed to break even at -625.
Both teams are house-model picks to win. At these saved prices, neither belongs on its shortlist.
The Receipts Drawer
Does the house model’s win rate prove these picks are profitable?
House NFL Moneyline reports a 62.5% win rate across 32 picks. The saved data does not include the dated results and prices needed to judge profitability.
Why are the Green Bay Packers and Los Angeles Rams missing?
The house model rates 13 of 15 games. It has no pick for Green Bay at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers or the Rams at the Philadelphia Eagles, so those games are excluded.
Are these live moneylines?
No. These figures come from the October 2, 2026, data update at 23:03 UTC. Individual quote times and sportsbook names are not supplied.
What do model agreement counts tell me?
Houston has 15 of 22 model picks; Chicago has 6 of 22. That is support for a winner, not a price. Models using the same information can share mistakes; we don’t know how much information these forecasts share. Compare the forecasts on the NFL picks board.
Where these numbers come from
Every number above comes from Shark Snip’s Week 4 data pack, built Oct 2, 2026.
